Text version
0:00

[music]

0:07

Hello everyone, and as tradition dictates, a special

0:09

good evening to our viewers in Siberia and

0:11

the Russian Far East, for whose sake we moved

0:12

this slot to 4:00 p.m. Moscow time

0:15

You’re watching the Navalny Live channel

0:17

where they always tell the truth. Only

0:19

the truth, nothing but the truth. And this is the most

0:23

fashionable economics show in the country

0:24

called Where’s the Money? I’m your host,

0:27

Vladimir Milov. And today we have an

0:28

unexpected guest. This is not a mirage, not editing,

0:31

and you’re not hallucinating: this is the future president

0:33

of the Russian Federation, Alexei Navalny.

0:35

Bonjour! Hi, Volodya, thanks so much for

0:38

inviting me. It really is not just the most stylish

0:40

but also the most useful and genuinely

0:42

interesting economics show. We’re

0:44

very grateful that you host it on

0:45

the Navalny Live channel. Thank you. We

0:47

try to explain in plain language

0:49

to many people in our country the truth about

0:51

the economy that they won’t hear on

0:52

television. And Alexei and I agreed

0:54

that he would come to us today because

0:56

there were a lot of requests to clarify many

0:58

aspects of his presidential economic program.

1:00

I think the best way to do that

1:02

is directly, with the man himself

1:04

here in the studio. But I’d still like to

1:06

start

1:07

with the story of the week: Usmanov. Yes, everyone

1:09

who still hasn’t watched Alexei’s video

1:12

responding to Usmanov, in detail about

1:14

the origins of all his wealth and

1:16

so on—if you haven’t seen it, there’s a link

1:18

in the description of our broadcast. But I think

1:19

many people have watched it, and it seems to me

1:23

that it’s always very important to emphasize this

1:24

main point, which has really

1:26

been overlooked: how he earned

1:28

his initial capital—essentially

1:31

by taking Gazprom’s metallurgical

1:33

assets. Frankly, as a

1:35

way of introduction, I can say that I remember in

1:36

government that moment when they so

1:38

completely changed their tune midair. Just the day before

1:39

they were saying, “Look how great we are,”

1:41

“we consolidated these metallurgical

1:43

assets that someone had identified,” and so

1:45

on—almost handing out awards, practically

1:47

to Usmanov. It was very interesting in court

1:50

because we had named you as a witness, and they

1:53

were practically twisting themselves into knots: “No, dear, that’s impossible.” But he

1:56

“had absolutely nothing to do with it, he knows

1:58

nothing, he was in the tariff system, he had no

2:00

connection to Gazprom.” But we

2:02

know that he did have a connection—not only did he,

2:04

and since 1997 I’ve

2:05

personally handled many issues

2:07

related to Gazprom. So the way they

2:10

changed their tune midair—yes, right then and there

2:12

literally, when the decision was made to hand all this

2:14

over to Usmanov, they started saying it was

2:15

“non-core assets, we don’t need them,”

2:17

“we’re just getting rid of some

2:19

junk,” and so on. I dug up an

2:21

interesting article—an interview with

2:23

Usmanov himself from March 2002 in Vedomosti

2:25

There it is on the screen, please. Yes,

2:26

and this first slide is actually its

2:29

title, and you can find it—the link is

2:31

in the description to our video. But here’s the most

2:33

interesting part—I selected the next excerpt,

2:35

the one underlined in red. Yes, when

2:37

he is asked directly: “With what money

2:39

did you buy it, and why didn’t you hold

2:41

a tender?” And he says, “I’m not going to tell you

2:43

anything. What kind of tender could there be when I

2:45

was a minority shareholder there and had

2:47

preemptive rights?” So this is

2:48

absolutely—well, it’s much worse than

2:50

the loans-for-shares auctions, of course. And that’s exactly

2:52

why they were so worried about

2:56

the release of our second video, because

2:57

from those British documents we had already established everything:

3:00

the guy first, using

3:02

Gazprom’s money, bought himself out from himself,

3:04

then with Gazprom’s money bought up more,

3:06

and then simply sold it to himself again, only

3:09

cheaper. In plain terms, he just robbed Gazprom.

3:11

Yes—he headed both Gazprom’s

3:13

subsidiary that held those shares and his own

3:15

private company to which they were transferred. So

3:17

I’d really like to see that contract.

3:18

There must have been two Usmanovs there, one selling to the other

3:20

to himself—that’s exactly what it looks like.

3:22

That’s precisely why they were categorically

3:24

against calling you as a witness,

3:26

categorically against obtaining

3:28

documents from Gazprom, because this is—

3:30

you’re absolutely right, and you put it well—this is

3:32

worse than the loans-for-shares auctions. The loans-for-shares

3:34

auctions were, broadly speaking, a sham, but

3:37

at least they were legally structured properly and

3:40

happened in plain sight—everyone

3:42

saw it. But here—here this is simply the most

3:44

genuine criminal backroom deal.

3:46

Absolutely. I don’t even remember a board

3:48

decision at Gazprom on this matter. I

3:50

have the impression that Miller personally

3:51

signed off on all of this for them. And now let’s

3:54

quickly go over just a

3:56

couple of current stories. Of course, the main one is

3:58

that the St. Petersburg

4:00

Economic Forum opens today. Remember, we talked a lot

4:02

about the fat-cat economy—that is,

4:04

this dozen monopolies

4:06

headed or controlled by

4:09

people close to the authorities, who

4:10

basically suck all the lifeblood out of our

4:12

country, while, uh, two-thirds of the population

4:15

basically lives in poverty. Yes, today these

4:17

fat cats are essentially holding their convention in

4:20

St. Petersburg. There are 200 business jets there; I think

4:22

the marinas are probably packed with yachts too. But

4:25

first of all, I want to brag a little: I

4:26

pulled a little dirty trick on them.

4:29

sabotage there. And at this forum

4:31

are being distributed among the participants

4:33

a special issue of Profile magazine

4:35

timed to coincide with this forum. And

4:38

the editors specifically asked me

4:39

to, so to speak, sweeten things a little

4:42

for the empire-minded crowd, yes, and to write a long

4:44

article, 15,000 characters long, about

4:46

how, broadly speaking, this

4:48

model of the state

4:50

of monopolistic capitalism has gone bankrupt. You

4:53

can read that article

4:54

definitely, because it lays out a

4:56

serious alternative to the current

4:58

political model in the form of

5:00

demonopolization and competition, which is what we

5:02

have been talking about. The link is in the description of our

5:05

broadcast and on my website millow.org

5:08

It’s posted there — The Elephants of State Capitalism — that’s the

5:10

title, you won’t confuse it with anything else. But

5:13

just to show you, really,

5:16

how completely detached these people are, the ones who

5:18

have gathered in St. Petersburg, from real life. Here,

5:20

show the next picture. It’s a

5:22

snapshot from one of the sessions

5:23

run by the Egorov law firm

5:26

Buginsky and someone else there. This Egorov

5:28

was Putin’s classmate, one of those

5:31

people close to the emperor today

5:33

Yes. And this is what’s posted on the forum’s website

5:36

— I’m not joking — everything written here

5:38

is right there now, on the site:

5:40

“Recently, enormous work has been carried out

5:42

to improve Russia’s legal system.”

5:44

Yes, remember what we discussed in

5:47

previous programs — about a quarter of a

5:48

million new criminal cases a year against

5:51

entrepreneurs. Yes, you know — well,

5:53

you probably know, because they wrote that

5:54

this session is practically being led by Prosecutor General

5:57

Chaika, meaning Chaika is speaking

5:59

about investment

6:02

probably using his own family as an example

6:04

to explain it

6:05

investment traditions. But this is just one more

6:08

reason to understand how much these people

6:11

live in some other country. They’ve

6:13

walled themselves off on Rublyovka (an elite suburb outside Moscow), on their

6:15

yachts, behind barbed wire, from the rest of us. Yes, they

6:17

know nothing about the real economy, and

6:19

today we’re going to talk precisely about what

6:21

is actually happening in the country while

6:23

they sit there discussing the opening of escrow

6:25

accounts. Yes, I’d put it this way:

6:27

better hurry up and open an escrow account before

6:29

they jail you for entrepreneurial

6:31

activity. That, probably, could

6:33

serve as the symbol of this discussion.

6:36

I wanted to say that what surprises me most

6:39

about this St. Petersburg forum, year

6:41

after year — and similar

6:42

forums in general — when I look at them, I always

6:44

want to ask: guys, who are you

6:46

even talking to? Kudrin is always sitting there,

6:48

and year after year he says,

6:53

“Russia needs reforms.”

6:55

“The Russian government is not ready for

6:57

reforms.” He’s sitting there — Kudrin is sitting there,

6:58

next to him sits Siluanov, over here sits Nabiullina,

7:01

and he says the government is not ready for

7:03

reforms, and they all nod their heads: yes,

7:05

not ready. Who are you talking to? And here,

7:07

show the next picture. Yesterday there was also

7:09

a sensation, when Vedomosti leaked — not yet

7:12

officially published, but drafted by the

7:14

Economic Development Ministry — this project. They labored over it,

7:16

labored over it. You were asking about the new minister,

7:18

Oreshkin, how good he is — well, now you can see

7:20

just how good. They came up with a strategy through

7:22

2035 saying that incomes

7:24

will not grow, pensions will not rise to

7:26

a critical level ever, wages

7:27

maybe by 2022 — and everyone

7:29

should go to the polls and, together, you understand

7:31

what to do in a situation like this. Did you

7:33

see it? Yes, of course. Frankly, this is

7:35

simply, in my view, these people admitting

7:37

that they are satisfied with the status quo, that in reality

7:39

they do not want to change anything in the system. And I

7:42

think we need to take this Vedomosti article

7:44

— people in the provinces don’t read it —

7:47

and print it out

7:49

for people, because

7:51

it’s astonishing. I mean, they are simply

7:53

saying outright that we

7:54

have failed, we have gone bankrupt, we’ve been in power for 18 years

7:57

and can’t do anything. Your

7:59

incomes do not interest us; we have some other

8:01

goals — inflation targeting,

8:04

budget rules. I want to say separately about Kudrin.

8:08

In fact, this forum

8:10

is in many ways Kudrin’s show; he’s the star there

8:11

— six appearances in two days — and I’ve

8:14

honestly spoken at such conferences

8:15

two or three times in a day myself sometimes, and that’s

8:17

already a heavy load. And a great many

8:19

people pin, in my view rather unjustifiably,

8:21

their hopes on this. Because

8:23

if you look at what exactly

8:25

Kudrin is proposing — you can see a couple of slides about

8:27

him — it is, first, a reduction in

8:29

social spending, and second, unfortunately,

8:32

an increase in the retirement

8:33

age. I wanted to talk with you specifically

8:35

about this topic. In my view,

8:37

implementing his ideas will lead to even greater

8:40

social tension

8:41

and, overall, the situation — in my view, we

8:44

know that demand in our economy is flat on the floor

8:46

and because of that the economy is stagnant. I don’t know, everyone

8:48

seems to hope that now, instead of

8:50

someone else, Kudrin will come in. What do you think

8:51

about that? It’s an astonishing situation

8:54

in which raising the retirement

8:56

age is being sold to all of us, and in many ways

8:59

has already been sold to the public and

9:01

to the democratic-minded part of society, as

9:03

some kind of panacea. So, what we need

9:06

you support raising the retirement age

9:08

somewhere out in the regions, people come up and say

9:09

Well, Alexei, there’s no alternative, is there?

9:11

to raising the retirement age. But why?

9:13

No. In fact, this is an absolutely harmful

9:17

and absolutely immoral measure right now, but

9:19

Let’s look at life expectancy

9:21

in Russia. Please bring up chart number nine

9:24

if you can. Yes, here we have a chart

9:25

showing the specific gap with Western countries

9:27

in life expectancy. So how can you

9:29

raise the retirement age? We would

9:31

literally push it to a threshold that

9:34

men in Russia simply do not

9:35

live to reach. And if they do, they are already

9:38

seriously ill people who simply can’t work. So

9:41

if possible, the next slide as well. I

9:43

keep talking about this issue, which

9:45

supporters of raising the retirement

9:46

age try to keep tucked away

9:48

somewhere out of sight. But in reality, here are

9:51

studies by people who worked on

9:52

the system. They show that already at

9:54

pre-retirement age, well,

9:56

most people suffer from chronic

9:58

illnesses and are in a position to qualify

10:00

for disability pensions. It seems to me

10:02

this is simply deception. I mean, we’re just not

10:04

ready for this. Half, or even two

10:07

thirds of the people who fall under

10:09

the increase will immediately go onto

10:10

disability. They may be working now, but

10:12

first of all, they can’t actually work

10:14

But look at detection rates. I don’t know,

10:16

for cancer, for example. In the West

10:18

if a person is diagnosed with cancer, they are

10:20

treated and then go back to work. Here, when

10:22

cancer is detected, all that remains is

10:25

to save the person’s life, certify them as

10:27

disabled, and that’s it—they simply live out the rest of their days

10:29

So with our level of healthcare

10:32

this is simply not even feasible. The problem

10:35

with the pension system is that

10:36

people are simply already sick by retirement

10:40

age, and the fact that in our country early

10:42

retirement is taken by nearly 30% of people

10:44

I’m 40 years old. All my former classmates

10:47

became military personnel or police officers or

10:49

something like that—coming from a military town, they

10:51

are already pensioners now, or they stay in service

10:54

solely because they’re waiting for housing

10:55

We have a huge number of people retiring

10:57

early, so the things being proposed to them

11:00

are, in principle, not even

11:01

workable. It’s simply a deception. And in fact

11:05

it won’t be possible, through all this,

11:06

to save money unless before that we

11:08

make some serious efforts to

11:10

improve the population’s health. And I

11:12

would also like to add, by the way, that our, uh,

11:14

supporters of raising the retirement

11:15

age always say: yes, our

11:17

life expectancy is low, but

11:19

conditional survival after a certain age is high. That is, if you

11:20

make it to 60, you’ll live another 12 years or so

11:23

right

11:24

But once again, colleagues, I want you to

11:27

understand that we are emphasizing that people

11:29

who live to the current

11:31

retirement age are already not in

11:32

a condition to work. These tens of

11:34

millions of healthy, uh, people ready to

11:37

keep working in their sixties, as

11:39

in the West—we simply imagine them

11:41

in our heads, as if there were some kind of

11:42

sprightly European pensioners

11:45

who are basically still young people. But look at

11:48

our country, especially in industrial cities

11:50

Take somewhere like Chelyabinsk, with its

11:52

staggering rates of illness, and

11:54

similar cities: at 60, a person, well,

11:57

tell them to keep working—they simply

11:58

cannot work in principle. They have a

12:00

medical file this thick

12:02

So first healthcare, and only then

12:04

later can we start

12:06

talking about the retirement age. This is

12:08

not even an issue for the next

12:09

decade or so. And most importantly, they are all

12:12

looking for money for the budget, for

12:15

the pension system, and they say: well, here is

12:17

the only source—people. Let’s

12:19

take even more from these people and

12:21

make them work longer. And somehow

12:24

for some reason, no one in the government

12:26

ever thinks to

12:28

turn around a little and see the wonderful

12:30

Gazproms, Rosnefts, Transnefts, and all the

12:33

rest. There it is—the money that

12:35

could be directed into the pension system

12:37

So, please show slide number 12 on, uh,

12:40

oil and gas revenues and what we

12:42

propose doing to replenish the

12:45

fund. This is, in my view, a fairly

12:47

clear and understandable chart. Everything

12:50

at the bottom there—the dark blue, red, and

12:52

brown sections—yes, that is what is already

12:54

built into the current budget in the form of

12:56

oil and gas revenues. Taking into account the rise

12:58

in prices, this already basically covers

13:01

the volume of insurance contributions collected from

13:04

businesses. That is, it’s somewhere around 5

13:06

to 5.5 trillion rubles. And the rest of the

13:08

pension fund budget is simply

13:10

subsidized by the federal budget. Yes, but

13:12

if we do what we are proposing

13:14

to collect proper dividends from

13:16

state-owned companies and raise taxes on Gazprom

13:17

which pays only about $20

13:19

per 1,000 cubic meters. Yes, now show

13:22

the next slide about, about dividends

13:23

from state-owned companies. We decided to make you

13:25

a breakdown. Right, you were on

13:27

various committees, boards of directors’ representatives

13:29

Yes, you worked a lot, a lot with all of them

13:31

you sued them over disclosures, yes, all those disclosures

13:34

fought to make sure they at least

13:36

showed where they were spending billions, but

13:38

even the same Transneft

13:39

billions of rubles spent on who-knows-what

13:41

some unknown "gratitude," kept secret

13:42

secrets, even though economically

13:45

they refuse to disclose where they are putting

13:47

all these charitable donations

13:48

and overall they have enormous operating

13:51

profit, while at Transneft, as for dividends, they

13:53

pay next to nothing a year, and overall, well

13:56

look, a lot of people have even told me—we discussed this

13:58

idea in previous programs

13:59

they ask: well, what if they don't have

14:02

that kind of profit right now? Well, guys, then costs need

14:04

to be cut. But at Gazprom, I told you

14:07

how 15 years ago they had

14:08

a workforce of 300,000 people. Now it's 465,000

14:11

yes, even though production has fallen by more than

14:13

20%, and labor costs are

14:16

a key line item there, the second largest

14:18

category of their expenses, yes—raw materials and supplies

14:21

Well then, let's take your kickback economy

14:23

and comb through it—we'll hold competitive tenders for

14:25

procurement there, and so on. This is actually

14:27

easier to do, easier to administer

14:29

than if we now start changing the retirement

14:32

age and discover that, first of all, everyone is

14:33

sick, and second, everyone qualifies for early retirement

14:35

they don't want to, they can't, and there will be

14:38

enormous fraud and scandals because of

14:41

these commissions that determine

14:43

whether someone is disabled or not. We won't make any money

14:44

from this at all. It's important

14:46

to understand this: when we're told

14:49

that refusing to raise the retirement

14:51

age is populism, that's a complete lie

14:53

an absolute lie. What is populism is saying

14:56

that the retirement age must be raised

14:58

while leaving Rosneft

15:00

and Gazprom alone because they're supposedly poor

15:02

and miserable and nothing can be taken from them. Besides,

15:04

this is, in principle, a global trend: people

15:06

work less now. We can see

15:08

that in Scandinavian countries they are reducing working hours

15:10

and introducing, uh,

15:13

an extra day off on Fridays. What needs to be increased is

15:16

labor productivity. We need to

15:18

stop forcing these millions of people with

15:20

low productivity

15:21

to work for miserable

15:23

wages so that they can solve

15:24

the problems of Putin's economy, and

15:27

just imagine this: let the guys from

15:30

the ACF, for example, comb through all

15:32

the procurement at Gazprom. Alexei really

15:34

is a shareholder in all these companies, he

15:36

also knows this whole internal

15:37

kitchen very well. I can assure you, as someone

15:39

who has dealt with Gazprom all my life,

15:41

there is plenty of profit there—it is just

15:43

channeled out into all sorts of affiliated

15:46

companies and then turns into yachts through

15:48

state procurement schemes. Let's just look at it—after all,

15:50

even Medvedev admits it's a trillion rubles a year

15:52

in procurement in state monopolies; in reality it's much

15:55

more—around five trillion rubles

15:56

Even if we can't, the very next day, save all

15:59

these 5 trillion for ourselves, well

16:01

a couple trillion from these state procurements could

16:03

be returned to the economy fairly quickly. And

16:06

also, so that you understand, show slide

16:07

number fourteen about Bashneft—this is

16:09

a fresh example. As soon as Sechin

16:11

grabbed Bashneft, remember how last autumn

16:14

Misha Leontyev was telling us about

16:15

synergy

16:17

yes, how wonderfully everything would work now

16:19

As for dividends—nothing. Bashneft, in which

16:21

the state was a shareholder, used to pay

16:24

the biggest single dividend payments in

16:26

the sector—20 billion rubles a year, yes, and that

16:29

largely went into the budget. Now

16:30

it's zero, nothing. And so

16:34

on the previous slide—bring back the one about

16:36

the overall table—you can see Rosneft there, well

16:38

there's a zero sitting there. Yes, that's exactly what we were

16:40

talking about: Rosneftegaz

16:41

wants to book a paper loss for itself and

16:43

not pay anything into the budget at all. And all of this

16:46

is really slowly moving toward being shifted

16:48

onto

16:50

pensioners—forcing them to work and

16:52

dumping the financing burden onto them

16:53

Why are you absolutely right to keep talking

16:56

about demonopolization? Well, because

16:58

this state devours everything

17:00

There was Bashneft, which paid normal

17:02

taxes. No—Rosneft swallowed it up, and now

17:03

together they don't pay taxes. But here is

17:06

the money—it's there right now, it can be

17:08

taken

17:09

from us right now, before our very eyes. This

17:12

has all been in the headlines in recent weeks

17:14

Gazprom has been exempted from obligations

17:15

Bashneft now simply—and in fact even

17:18

doesn't hesitate to do it either

17:20

completely openly, and they also openly

17:22

tell us outright: well, guys, it's impossible not to

17:24

raise the retirement age. No, that

17:26

isn't true—there is an alternative, and that is my

17:28

alternative, it's obvious. You know, I wanted

17:30

to ask a somewhat philosophical question here. I

17:31

also feel that maybe this is some kind of

17:33

bacillus left over from the market reformers

17:36

of the first wave: as soon as you start

17:37

talking to people about some kind of

17:39

responsibility or social policy

17:40

everyone immediately bristles

17:43

and says, "that's populism." What do we do about that? That's

17:46

exactly how it is, because where did

17:48

Russian economists even come from—these people who

17:50

call themselves economists? Well, once upon a time

17:53

back then

17:54

in the 1980s there really was

17:56

a grand confrontation between

17:58

the red directors and the communists

18:00

and the people who called themselves market reformers

18:02

and, uh, the Soviet Union was collapsing—it

18:05

was collapsing as an impoverished country, and back then any

18:08

The word "social," of course,

18:10

used to be met with hostility, because back then

18:12

anything social was seen as the enemy. We

18:14

were supposed to be 100% free-market believers.

18:18

We were supposed to fully embrace

18:21

paid education, paid

18:22

healthcare. Anywhere the word

18:24

"social" appeared, it meant the enemy. Well, that was the spirit of the time

18:26

back then, but now, thank God,

18:28

more than 20 years have passed—almost 30 years, in fact.

18:31

It is high time to get rid of that mindset and

18:34

stop reacting with hostility and start accepting any

18:37

normal social idea that

18:39

has been implemented in perfectly successful

18:41

capitalist countries. All of this

18:42

exists in Western Europe, but even now

18:44

here in Russia

18:45

it is still considered good form among people

18:48

who call themselves economists: wherever

18:50

they hear the word "social," they immediately say

18:51

"populism." Like parrots: populism, this is

18:53

impossible, that's populism. Let's

18:55

raise the retirement age—that's not

18:57

populism. Anywhere people have to pay, that's

18:59

good. Anywhere we try to get something out of

19:01

the state or a state-owned company

19:03

that's bad. I wanted to remind you

19:05

of our discussion about the retirement age and

19:08

stress once again that this idea—that

19:10

you can supposedly cast off social

19:12

spending, throw people into poverty, and everything

19:14

will somehow turn out fine—is an absolutely harmful idea.

19:17

Because it does not pay off economically,

19:19

because you create a huge

19:20

number of destitute people with no prospects,

19:22

who are, understandably, angry. Yes, they are prone

19:25

to all sorts of things—to vote for

19:27

populists, or, who knows, to engage in other

19:29

actions that, to put it mildly,

19:31

may have an anti-modernization character.

19:32

It's just that we don't... You see, our

19:35

main problem in the economy right now is

19:36

a lack of demand and consumers whose purchasing power has collapsed.

19:39

In other words, we cannot restart our

19:40

market. With an impoverished population, there will be no

19:42

economic growth. So this is simply

19:45

a matter of normal responsibility.

19:46

You talk to an entrepreneur somewhere in

19:48

Barnaul and ask, "How's business going?"

19:50

And he says, "What kind of business can I

19:52

possibly have if everyone here earns 12,000

19:54

rubles a month? What can I sell them?

19:56

Nothing." And then someone writes in from Vladimir Region:

19:58

unemployment benefits there range from 800 to

20:01

4,900 rubles a month, while the subsistence minimum

20:03

is around 9,000 rubles—at least twice as much.

20:06

At least twice as much. I wanted to talk about the minimum wage here.

20:07

This is basically the main issue.

20:09

These so-called textbook liberals have made it their main

20:12

theme, the main target they have chosen,

20:13

namely the minimum wage. And by the way,

20:16

you know, show this here,

20:17

this little chart. First of all, let's

20:19

remind ourselves how much people here actually

20:20

earn. It's image number 15; it was shown

20:23

in one of the previous programs. These are

20:25

Rosstat data, and it shows very clearly

20:27

that half the population lives

20:30

on a salary of less than 25,000 rubles a month. And in fact,

20:32

it's actually even worse—the breakdown shows that

20:34

most people live on even less. And these are all

20:37

official figures. If we look at the

20:39

informal sector, wages there are lower,

20:40

so the whole picture shifts downward, of course.

20:43

And look: more than 80

20:46

percent of the population earns less than 50,000

20:49

rubles a month. So really, how

20:51

do we expect to generate any kind of growth,

20:53

to create any demand for goods,

20:55

with labor in Russia paid so poorly?

20:58

Especially considering that, as we were saying with

21:01

Vlad Zhukovsky—if you saw the previous

21:02

program—one of the key problems

21:04

in, say, skilled

21:06

high-tech sectors is

21:07

a labor shortage. Because people who are

21:09

educated and qualified are not willing

21:11

to work for such wages. And so I wanted

21:13

to show once again

21:15

the next slide—yes, the one about the minimum wage—to show that

21:18

people are being scared with dire

21:19

warnings about 25,000 rubles, but

21:22

look at how much, right now,

21:23

an employer is actually paying, taking into account

21:25

the current 30 percent payroll contributions.

21:27

And if those were hypothetically abolished,

21:30

then a 25,000-ruble wage would in fact be

21:32

less than, say, today's

21:34

20,000-ruble wage, effectively speaking. And this is

21:37

a very important slide, because you are absolutely right

21:40

when you say that the proposal drawing the most

21:41

criticism is precisely our proposal to raise

21:44

the minimum wage to 25,000

21:46

rubles. The moment you say it—good Lord—every

21:49

cliché starts spinning: the inflation spiral, you

21:53

want to hand out money left and right,

21:55

and all the rest of it. But that is complete

21:57

nonsense. These are the same people who

21:59

lecture us about an inflation spiral

22:01

while having no objection whatsoever to

22:03

state monopolies, or monopolies in general,

22:05

including utility monopolies, raising their tariffs.

22:08

They say tariffs have to go up because infrastructure wears out

22:10

and resources are depleted—but that is actually the biggest

22:12

contributor to inflation. Inflation in Russia is what it is

22:15

because monopolies endlessly

22:17

raise their prices. The inflationary impact of

22:20

raising wages would be far,

22:21

far smaller. And most importantly,

22:23

the only—if you could show

22:25

the slide again now—the one about wages

22:28

and taxes, yes, that one—

22:32

the only rational argument is about

22:34

how difficult it would be for entrepreneurs,

22:36

especially small businesses, to pay higher

22:39

wages. Well, our proposal addresses

22:41

that problem for small business owners.

22:44

As things stand, small entrepreneurs are being crushed altogether.

22:45

People don’t pay payroll taxes and don’t

22:49

receive official, fully declared salaries because

22:50

it’s impossible to pay them — the sheer absurdity

22:53

of these taxes is outrageous. If we especially

22:54

cut them on minimum wages, then these

22:57

social contributions — entrepreneurs would, without

22:59

any problem, pay those wages officially. I

23:01

wanted to emphasize this again in connection

23:04

with one important current story. So,

23:05

show slide number seventeen. We

23:08

have heard in the news in recent days that

23:10

new Russian civilian aircraft have been sent on

23:12

test flights — the MC-21.

23:14

Honestly, I’ll say this: even though this

23:16

aircraft surely has a lot of problems, yes, but

23:18

it’s still a good thing. This is exactly the kind of thing we want

23:20

to see developed — these kinds of industries

23:22

in our country. Now, on the next slide,

23:24

if you look at the company’s financial statements

23:26

for Irkut — that is, the Irkutsk aircraft plant

23:28

that will produce this aircraft —

23:30

yes, on the next slide you can see that it

23:33

pays into the social funds an amount three times

23:36

larger — these social fund contributions are three times

23:37

greater than its net profit. Yes, Zhukovsky and I

23:40

have talked in previous programs

23:41

a lot about how much this

23:43

burden — the tax burden on

23:46

payroll funds — very seriously

23:47

hinders the development of such

23:49

high-tech industries. Here is

23:51

an example with this aircraft. In principle,

23:53

it’s a good thing that Russia produces

23:55

civilian aircraft, right? But this

23:57

tax simply devours everything and makes it

23:59

unprofitable. They need to produce

24:02

several hundred more planes in order

24:04

to make it profitable, simply

24:05

because of payroll taxes like these. This issue also

24:07

hits close to home for me. Here at the

24:10

Anti-Corruption Foundation (ACF), we pay

24:11

exclusively official, fully declared salaries, but we

24:13

have no other option, for obvious

24:15

reasons. And in order to pay a person

24:18

anything at all, I also have to send

24:19

a pile of money into these

24:22

funds. We can afford it because

24:25

our source of money is simple: people

24:27

just give us money. But if this were

24:29

some competitive business, where

24:33

my main costs were precisely

24:34

people’s salaries, I would have gone bankrupt long ago.

24:36

Yes, it simply couldn’t exist at all.

24:38

Once again, bring back slide number 12. Everyone

24:41

who is now going to tell us,

24:42

the moment we say this, “Oh, how are you then

24:44

going to finance contributions to

24:47

the Pension Fund?” — slide number 12, here is

24:49

how contributions to the Pension Fund are formed.

24:51

We have perfectly sufficient oil and gas revenues —

24:53

more than enough today

24:55

to increase pensions by a third, not

24:58

like Kudrin says: “Let’s

24:59

cut things, raise the retirement age, and

25:02

then maybe there will be a possibility to raise pensions.”

25:03

No — all of this can be done already today.

25:05

We’ve just explained to you how

25:07

easily this can be done. There is no need

25:10

to invent anything here: these oil and gas

25:11

revenues should be working for pensioners.

25:13

You know why they say this? It seems to me

25:15

— going back to that point about

25:17

how it’s unclear who exactly they’re explaining all this

25:19

to — because they sit there at their

25:21

St. Petersburg forums, and overall, I think

25:22

they understand quite well everything we’re

25:25

talking about, and of course they would agree with us, but

25:26

they just don’t want to notice the elephant in the room.

25:28

And that elephant is called Vladimir Putin.

25:31

Vladimirovich. If you want to say anything at all

25:34

here about how

25:36

Russia should be reformed, about who is obstructing

25:39

reforms — Kudrin, Siluanov, Nabiullina —

25:42

they should simply say in unison:

25:44

“Nothing works here because

25:46

the same people have been in power for 18 years and want

25:49

another 12, and they will never

25:52

cut Gazprom’s costs because

25:54

they profit from them — they

25:56

simply make money off them. And so,

25:59

in order not to touch these things that are unpleasant

26:01

for Putin, they come up with: ‘Let’s

26:03

raise the retirement age. Let’s

26:05

shift healthcare costs — all of this — onto

26:08

us, because all these Timchenkos and

26:10

Rotenbergs don’t want to pay

26:13

for the full inefficiency of this system.’ So,

26:15

we’ll get to them in a moment, by the way. Another

26:16

question I wanted to ask you is

26:18

the environment. Yes, your program doesn’t

26:20

say all that much about it directly, but people

26:23

are asking about it a lot, accordingly,

26:25

especially after you spoke at the

26:27

rally in Chelyabinsk in April against

26:29

the Tominsky GOK (mining and processing plant). It’s an important issue; it also

26:31

came up actively in protests. If

26:33

we can, let’s watch a clip with

26:35

fragments of your speech in

26:37

Chelyabinsk.

26:45

so that on your land they build things that

26:49

will

26:50

Do you want yet another oligarch

26:54

to profit at the expense of your health?

26:58

Please tell me,

27:01

are the taxes they

27:05

will pay worth your children’s health? No.

27:09

The city of Chelyabinsk must say to all

27:12

politicians — to me, to Putin, to Zhirinovsky,

27:15

to Zyuganov, to anyone — that we will support

27:18

only those who are against the GOK, right?

27:21

We will oppose everyone who is for the GOK, right? And

27:27

then politicians themselves will come here to you, onto

27:30

this stage. I came, and everyone else

27:33

must come here too and say what they

27:35

think about the GOK. Everyone must come

27:38

here and say what they think about

27:42

the level of cancer rates in

27:45

Chelyabinsk.

27:46

If someone tells us, “Thank you, well done,”

27:51

if someone tells us that this mining

27:55

and processing plant

27:57

will bring a high standard of living and prosperity—well,

28:01

show me even one city in Russia

28:03

where there is a mining and processing plant and there is prosperity,

28:06

are there any such cities?

28:07

Unfortunately,

28:09

all the cities that have, or are surrounded by,

28:12

mining and processing plants are,

28:14

first, poor, and second, everyone is sick.

28:17

Life expectancy is low, and there’s no money.

28:21

That’s what a mining and processing

28:23

plant is. To wrap up my remarks, I

28:25

want to say something that seems to me

28:27

obvious, but our authorities do not

28:30

understand: it is not oil or gas that bring money, but

28:35

people. No matter how much oil and gas

28:38

or ore you extract, if your people are sick, if

28:43

by age 30 everyone has cancer

28:45

or if children have childhood

28:47

respiratory illnesses—you cannot profit from that.

28:50

You cannot make money by selling off the health

28:54

of your citizens. Chelyabinsk,

28:56

support those politicians who are against

28:58

the plant, against any similar projects, against anything like this. Let

29:02

the whole city say that not a single

29:04

politician who supports this plant

29:07

will get a single vote here, right?

29:10

Thank you very much. I’m very glad, thank you

29:13

to the organizers for the opportunity to speak

29:15

here. Thank you.

29:16

[applause]

29:19

Well done.

29:21

Well, look, here’s one of those

29:24

popular attacks on you: they say,

29:26

“So what, are you against jobs

29:28

or something? You’ve also gotten into

29:30

environmental issues—this is just populism.” Respond to

29:32

that. It’s an absolutely rational position. I

29:34

have heard these reproaches: so you’re ready

29:35

to appear at any protest rally

29:37

because you just want to get

29:39

cheap sympathy. But my position is

29:41

absolutely rational: it is

29:44

unprofitable—not for people, not for the budget. But if

29:47

we look at the actual number of

29:48

jobs that this enterprise

29:50

will create, it is not that large on the scale

29:52

of Chelyabinsk, certainly. And this is

29:55

an insignificant number of jobs.

29:56

From the track record of such enterprises, we see

29:58

that wages are low. But, for example,

30:00

this particular plant affects the city’s water

30:02

intake, and one million people will

30:05

be poisoned a little bit. Here, show

30:07

slide nineteen—yes, yes, a little bit.

30:10

A million people will be poisoned a little bit,

30:12

and children will get sick a little more often.

30:15

There will be an increase in respiratory illnesses, an increase

30:18

in allergies and everything else. So I

30:20

simply see from the actual numbers that

30:22

residents, specifically in Chelyabinsk, will

30:25

spend more on medicines over a couple of years

30:27

than the budget will collect. In the end,

30:30

what happens is that the owner of the enterprise

30:32

will indeed make several

30:34

hundred million dollars. Yes, he will be

30:36

just fine, but overall the region

30:39

will have to spend several times more on healthcare

30:41

in order to

30:42

treat these people, because new problems will arise.

30:44

New treatment facilities will have to be built

30:46

for this more contaminated

30:49

water intake. More money will have to be spent

30:51

on treating children. More will have to be paid

30:54

in sick leave benefits to those people who

30:56

will stay home with these children and care for them,

30:58

and so on and so forth. You need to look

30:59

at all of this as a whole. Therefore,

31:00

my position is absolutely rational.

31:03

These harmful enterprises,

31:05

which are also uncontrolled, should not

31:07

be exempt from accountability. No one can insure against them,

31:09

no one can properly inspect them, and there is no

31:11

public oversight that can

31:13

go in, conduct a real assessment, and

31:15

sue them over poisoned water. That simply

31:18

does not happen. That is exactly why this is

31:20

simply unprofitable for Russia, because

31:23

sick people cost the economy and the budget

31:26

far, far more than

31:29

the budget will earn from this particular

31:31

harmful enterprise. You saw the screenshot:

31:33

this article is not from some kind of

31:34

opposition

31:35

democratic outlet, but from the most

31:37

pro-Kremlin Ural publication that

31:39

smears us as State Department agents and so

31:41

on. But they live there, you understand, they live there.

31:44

They wrote about how businesspeople are massively

31:46

preparing to leave Chelyabinsk precisely because of

31:48

this whole outlook. And the last

31:51

environmental story I wanted

31:52

to briefly cover—and then we’ll probably let Alexei go—is

31:54

this story

31:56

about our friend Rotenberg, and I mean

31:58

the younger one, yes. So he

32:00

picked up an asset called

32:02

the National Antimony

32:04

Company, if I’m not mistaken, and they

32:06

want to build in Asbest, 90 km (about 56 miles) from

32:09

Yekaterinburg, an extremely harmful

32:11

antimony production facility, very environmentally

32:14

hazardous. They will probably also talk about jobs—

32:15

140 jobs. That is, any

32:18

shopping mall creates more than 140 jobs. That is

32:21

basically nothing. And you’re right: they are

32:23

low-paid, and at the same time this is a very

32:25

harmful industry.

32:27

A toxic one, yes, yes. And on top of that, it is all

32:30

being pushed through, as always, without

32:31

proper hearings, without anything—simply

32:33

by brute force and administrative pressure. Naturally, they

32:36

will violate environmental standards there for profit.

32:38

What else would you expect from Rotenberg?

32:40

And now I would like to

32:42

show you an appeal from Natasha Krylova.

32:44

a deputy of the City Duma of the urban

32:47

district of Asbest, who is fighting this there almost single-handedly

32:48

project. So, let's

32:51

listen to what she says, and then we'll probably let Alexei go

32:53

at that point. Thank you

32:54

very much, yes.

32:58

Our city has come out against Rotenberg's plant

33:00

for the production of antimony and

33:03

cyanide gold leaching. We do not

33:05

need this kind of investment from an oligarch.

33:07

For decades, various enterprises in the city

33:10

have been destroyed. Last autumn,

33:12

the brick factory owned by

33:14

a State Duma deputy from United Russia

33:17

was shut down, and 200 people were thrown out onto the street.

33:20

Right now, a private

33:23

pig-breeding complex is closing; thousands of head of elite

33:26

animals will be slaughtered, and 80

33:29

workers will be laid off. Nobody cares.

33:32

But meanwhile, the opening here of Rotenberg's chemical

33:35

plant is being aggressively pushed through

33:38

by authorities at every level, and presented to us

33:41

like some kind of carrot on a string.

33:44

They promise to create, what, 40 jobs.

33:46

Public opinion is unequivocally against it.

33:49

People are being silenced; the problem is being hushed up.

33:52

On March 25,

33:55

a rally was held attended by up to a third of the population, but the media

34:00

did not cover these events at all. A petition to the president

34:03

was signed by 13,000

34:05

people, and there has been no result there either. In the

34:07

presidential administration, they put

34:09

the popular initiative on the back burner

34:10

and instructed the government

34:12

of Sverdlovsk Region, headed by

34:14

Governor Kuyvashev, a supporter of

34:17

Rotenberg. It's absurd. We are continuing our work

34:21

and fighting on. We created an initiative

34:25

group that registered with

34:27

the city's election commission, and now

34:29

we are pushing for a citywide

34:31

popular referendum. So

34:33

that's the issue.

34:36

Once again, let's thank Alexei

34:38

Navalny for finding the time to stop by today.

34:40

He has a ton of things going on there, with

34:42

the regional headquarters, with the Moscow

34:44

rally on June 12 — by the way, everyone should come to it —

34:47

and with a mass of other things

34:49

like anti-corruption investigations,

34:51

Usmanov, and so on. But I think it's very

34:54

important that he get more actively involved

34:56

precisely in this economic discussion,

34:58

because, as you know, right now there are a lot

35:00

of stupid voices saying

35:02

that Navalny supposedly has no program.

35:04

Yes, maybe some of us have

35:06

heard some recent remarks of that kind,

35:08

and then some kind of

35:10

complete nonsense starts, that he

35:13

is supposed to speak in detail about interbudgetary

35:16

relations. Listen, two years

35:18

ago, when we had the

35:20

Democratic Coalition in the regional

35:22

elections, we published a detailed paper

35:25

on what we want and how we see

35:27

the redistribution of tax revenues

35:29

from the center to the regions — that we want to give

35:32

the regions half of VAT and most of the

35:34

alcohol and tobacco excise taxes, and so on.

35:36

Yes, all of this has been published. If you

35:39

haven't seen it, that's your problem. I mean

35:42

first and foremost the gentlemen critics

35:44

who go around saying supposedly

35:45

that there is no program. But if our dear

35:48

viewers haven't seen these things, then once

35:50

again, write to me privately. You can find

35:52

a lot of this on my website,

35:54

millov.org, in the Programmatic

35:56

Documents section. We have a lot of concrete

35:59

material, and Alexei Navalny also has

36:01

a special section in his program

36:03

that is specifically devoted to the idea that not

36:06

everything should be decided in Moscow, and which

36:09

among other things envisions a substantial

36:10

transfer of money and powers to the regions and

36:13

municipalities. We'll be happy to tell you about it.

36:16

And once again, you know that

36:18

many of our viewers — I receive hundreds

36:21

of letters every time after each

36:23

program — and I try to answer most of them.

36:25

Write to me if you have

36:27

any questions on this topic. I will give you

36:29

all the links on whatever specific

36:31

sections interest you. A lot has already

36:34

been said, a lot has been written, and this idea

36:37

that we supposedly have no program is all

36:39

of course complete nonsense. You know, I wanted

36:42

to talk in a bit more detail

36:44

about this overall

36:47

picture with the St. Petersburg Economic

36:49

Forum and the alternative that we

36:51

are presenting, you know, now of course

36:54

Well, we've already briefly spoken about

36:56

Kudrin; there are many questions about his

36:58

presence there. Very many people think

37:00

that Kudrin's program will be some kind of

37:03

panacea for our current situation.

37:05

Besides that, there is supposed to be some kind of

37:08

debate with Boris Titov's program,

37:10

who is speaking there on behalf of, I don't even

37:13

know, the Stolypin Club or someone else.

37:14

Yes, I assume they have

37:18

some kind of debate on this topic at the

37:20

St. Petersburg forum. So now I'll

37:22

explain to you why all of this is, in general,

37:23

interesting, but not very serious

37:25

when applied to our reality. In our

37:28

reality — show that image again about

37:30

the elephants of state capitalism, definitely —

37:32

read this article of mine

37:34

which is being handed out right now at this forum in

37:37

Profile magazine. We have built

37:40

a system that has tied our hands

37:42

and feet and does not let anyone move

37:45

forward — a system of monopolistic

37:47

state capitalism built on the complete

37:50

dominance of a certain handful of these

37:51

in structures close to the emperor and his

37:54

relatives, and so on. There, the youngest

37:56

billionaire, Shamalov, all these

37:59

Timchenkos and Rotenbergs, the Usmanovs, and the rest.

38:02

So, this article explains in detail

38:04

that as long as we have this

38:06

structure in place, we are not going

38:09

to get anywhere, no matter what we do. And we've often

38:12

said here on the program that

38:14

what is needed is demonopolization and the development of

38:15

competition. The last one there, slide 23, is

38:18

our joint report from last year

38:20

with Mikhail Khodorkovsky, which we

38:23

prepared on how to demonopolize

38:24

the key sectors of our economy. Look for

38:27

it, read it, it's easy to find on

38:30

my website, millov.org. So, none of

38:34

them—not Kudrin, not Gref, and certainly not

38:37

the government—say anything

38:39

about this. And you see, a strange kind of

38:41

situation is taking shape: when they have

38:44

this huge plenary hall, and in essence

38:46

there is this dead

38:48

decomposing giant elephant lying there, which not only

38:51

takes up a lot of space, but also

38:53

doesn't exactly freshen the air. But they all pretend

38:56

that there is no elephant there at all. And that

38:59

instead, let's arrange something in a corner—

39:01

here we'll make a little kitchen, here we'll

39:03

make a little bedroom. Titov proposes

39:05

printing money so that everyone gets

39:07

access to cheap money—but what exactly

39:10

would that solve if all these monopolies stand

39:12

like a wall of barriers in the way of developing

39:15

normal competitive business and

39:17

won't let anyone do anything? Yes, exactly

39:20

the same with Kudrin. They can

39:22

debate as much as they like, but no real

39:24

discussion will come of it, because he no longer

39:26

says anything about it. He speaks very

39:28

favorably, uh, in general about this

39:31

economy of somewhat larger

39:32

national champions. Now, show

39:35

slide eight.

39:36

About roads: one of the problems we

39:39

keep talking about—and by the way, Navalny

39:41

wrote a lot about this—is competition

39:43

in road construction contracts.

39:46

550 billion rubles (about $8.5 billion), 550 billion

39:50

rubles—that is roughly the annual budget of the Federal Road

39:52

Agency, yes. And at the same time,

39:55

look, Dvorkovich admits that

39:57

we put into service only 300 kilometers (about 186 miles) of federal

39:59

highways per year. That is,

40:02

practically nothing. Why does this happen?

40:04

Because most of it goes to

40:06

repairs, because from the outset they

40:09

do poor-quality work. There is no

40:10

competition, all the contractors are insiders, everything

40:13

has been carved up, they mix sand into

40:15

the asphalt, and after a year already

40:17

it's impossible to drive on. You know all about our

40:19

potholes. So this sector, once again, should be handed

40:22

over for an audit to the guys from the ACF and put

40:25

it out to open tenders.

40:26

Demonopolize it, and it will be a completely

40:29

different story. In other words, the money is there—

40:32

there is plenty of money for road construction,

40:34

there is no need even to squeeze these poor

40:37

truck drivers. This whole

40:39

Platon system collects, what, 23 billion

40:41

rubles (about $355 million) this year versus a 550 billion-ruble budget

40:45

for Rosavtodor. I mean, it's nothing, it's

40:48

simply useless, what they are doing now

40:49

by trying to force them to pay these

40:53

Platon fees. The money exists, but

40:55

normal development in the road sector is not happening,

40:57

because the money is simply being stolen. So when

40:59

Navalny and his colleagues from the Anti-Corruption Foundation

41:02

say that everything is simply

41:05

being looted and that fighting

41:06

corruption is the top-priority

41:07

task, that is not just a slogan—it is something that

41:10

can genuinely solve our problems,

41:11

promote infrastructure

41:13

development, and ensure that the resources of which

41:16

Russia has in abundance actually work for

41:18

development rather than

41:21

being stuffed into the pockets of these

41:23

fat cats who today flew in on their

41:24

business jets and yachts to St. Petersburg

41:27

for their gathering. But no one there

41:29

is talking about this. Today I see

41:31

headlines saying Kudrin has come out in favor of

41:34

privatizing oil companies.

41:36

Excuse me, but here's a very simple

41:38

point: four oil companies in Russia

41:41

produce three-quarters of the country's oil.

41:43

One of them, Rosneft, now produces

41:45

more than 40 percent. Frankly, I am

41:49

against taking this monopolistic

41:51

structure and privatizing it. It was

41:54

a state monopoly, and it would become

41:55

a monopoly—a private monopoly. In other words, it would be

41:57

the same story all over again, just in a different form.

41:59

What we need, of course, is a competitive environment. In

42:02

America, the largest oil producer

42:04

accounts for something like

42:06

4%. You can see what a powerful

42:09

competitive environment that creates incentives

42:12

for innovation—the shale revolution and

42:15

the offshore revolution—I mean offshore in the

42:17

good sense of the word, offshore marine

42:19

extraction. All of this is, in general, the product of

42:22

this highly competitive environment that

42:25

stimulates innovation. In our case, our environment,

42:28

whether you leave it in state hands or

42:30

privatize it, being monopolistic,

42:33

encourages only theft,

42:34

inefficiency, and so on. But neither

42:37

Kudrin, nor Titov, nor

42:40

the government talk about this. All three of these so-called

42:42

alternatives gathered in St. Petersburg

42:45

have no intention of hauling this dead elephant out of

42:48

the room. Only we can do

42:49

that. So watch our channel,

42:52

Navalny Live, where they tell the truth about all of this.

42:54

Subscribe to our channel and

42:56

Be sure to support the presidential

42:58

campaign of Alexei Navalny. I wanted

43:01

to comment on a few questions

43:03

that you’ve been sending in. Of course, there are a lot

43:06

of questions about wages, yes, and this is

43:08

just a terribly sobering thing—this

43:12

article from Vedomosti that we were just

43:14

talking about with Alexei, about how

43:16

the government has basically admitted that they

43:18

have no intention of actually working to

43:20

raise our wages. What concerns them is

43:23

their own macroeconomic

43:25

considerations, while the problems of the impoverished population

43:28

that can’t afford anything for itself

43:30

to buy simply do not concern them, basically. So,

43:33

look, colleagues, please show once again

43:35

this graphic about

43:38

the ratio of wages to taxes, number 16

43:41

here. Right, so once again, many people write to me

43:44

saying: you talk about raising wages,

43:47

but I...

43:50

An entrepreneur writes: I can’t afford

43:52

to pay higher wages because of

43:54

how high the taxes on them are. Colleagues,

43:56

we are proposing—once again, we are proposing

43:58

a very clear, very good solution

44:00

to this problem: shift the main

44:02

burden of funding these social

44:05

funds onto state-owned, above all

44:07

oil and gas companies. There is enough money there;

44:09

we already showed that today

44:12

and talked about it in previous broadcasts.

44:14

Remove this tax burden, and as a result

44:16

if, for example, right now you

44:18

are paying an official declared salary of 20,000 rubles, and raise

44:20

it to 25,000, under our system you would benefit—you

44:24

would have to pay less, because

44:26

today you are paying excessive amounts

44:30

because of this very high

44:32

tax burden. Should

44:35

the state be forced to call all taxes

44:36

taxes, and not fees,

44:38

contributions, and other euphemisms?

44:40

Mikhail asks. Colleagues, of course, yes.

44:43

In general, you know that in our

44:46

Tax Code there is a provision

44:47

which says that no one may

44:49

be obligated to pay

44:52

charges that possess

44:55

the characteristics of a tax established by the Code

44:57

but are not actually called a tax

44:59

and are not provided for in the Code. So,

45:01

our state, taking advantage of the fact that

45:03

the United Russia party has a constitutional

45:05

majority in the Duma (the lower house of parliament), and they essentially

45:07

act like one big

45:08

rubber stamp: whatever is brought to it from

45:10

the government administration, they

45:12

just mindlessly stamp through, and there is no

45:14

real popular representation in parliament.

45:16

That’s why they push through

45:19

all sorts of laws that openly

45:20

violate the Constitution—the same goes for Platon (Russia’s truck toll system),

45:23

which is a pretty obvious case.

45:25

It has all the legal

45:27

features of a tax, but it is not

45:29

called a tax; it is called a contribution

45:31

or something like that. At the local level, a whole bunch of such

45:34

charges are being introduced, and we know

45:37

that, once again, this is a widespread

45:39

creeping attempt to shift the burden of the inefficiency

45:42

of its own

45:43

monopolistic state, which

45:45

only extracts resources from us and produces nothing,

45:47

onto all of us

45:49

who work hard to feed

45:51

our families and, among other things, to pay

45:53

taxes to the state. Yes, all those who

45:55

flew into St. Petersburg today on

45:57

business jets and yachts—we are the ones feeding all of them.

46:00

It should be the other way around. And, uh,

46:04

coming back once again to mining and processing plants and

46:08

to the environment—thanks to those who

46:10

appreciate that we understand this issue. We will

46:12

keep raising the issue of the environment specifically in

46:16

economic terms, because it is usually

46:18

viewed too simplistically. You know,

46:20

they say: investment was brought in,

46:23

some kind of raw-materials project was created,

46:25

a few jobs were made, and now we extract

46:27

profit. But as Alexei said,

46:30

this is a very complex

46:32

issue, where you have to take into account all

46:34

the side effects,

46:36

all the consequences for public health.

46:38

Well, I don’t know—speaking from my own closely related

46:41

professional field, I can tell you this:

46:42

in the power sector, just 22 coal-fired

46:46

power plants in Russia account for about 40

46:49

percent of all harmful emissions

46:51

into the atmosphere from Russia’s entire

46:53

electric power industry.

46:54

Each such facility is a zone

46:57

of environmental disaster. Anyone who

46:59

lives nearby knows it.

47:01

Healthcare costs are enormous.

47:03

What’s more, it’s not even just about healthcare

47:06

costs, but about the fact that people who

47:07

suffer from these various illnesses

47:10

cannot work—they lose

47:12

their ability to work. That is not very good for the economy either.

47:15

And as for jobs,

47:18

there just aren’t that many of them at these mining plants.

47:20

A thousand jobs? Come on—a megamall

47:23

like, I don’t know, Golden Babylon (a shopping mall chain), I

47:26

don’t want to advertise it, but any one of them

47:28

creates more jobs. So these are not

47:31

the kinds of numbers that justify

47:34

letting oligarchs push things through there in

47:37

violation of all environmental standards. They

47:40

push it through using administrative

47:41

resources and try as much as possible

47:43

to minimize their own costs. In

47:46

short, by pushing public opinion aside,

47:47

the corresponding measures for

47:50

minimizing the impact on the environment

47:52

are not carried out by them to the necessary extent. Our

47:55

monopolistic state, which

47:57

All they care about is oligarchs' profits, that's all.

47:59

That's what enables them to do it, so guys, don't

48:02

look at

48:04

the environmental problem exclusively

48:06

through the prism of the accounting of a particular

48:08

enterprise: well, it brought in a billion,

48:10

created 100 jobs. You have to look

48:13

at it as a whole, and these harmful

48:14

oligarchic industries operating in a

48:16

colonial Third World style are

48:19

of course, overall unprofitable for our

48:21

state, while the profits go only to

48:24

the oligarchs. Vladimir, does it help to spell out

48:27

Alexei's program? Look,

48:30

here's how we have it structured, so that you

48:32

understand.

48:34

As for Alexei Navalny's program, it

48:37

you know, it was published on the 2018 website

48:39

navalny.com, and it's very good. That is,

48:41

its framework reflects all the main

48:44

topics that should be addressed in terms of

48:47

reforms in our state: that money

48:49

should go to people, powers and taxes to the regions and

48:53

municipalities; enough of deciding everything in

48:55

central Moscow; that the state should not

48:57

be expanding police-state practices and corrupt

48:59

kickback projects, but should spend money on education,

49:01

healthcare, and roads — everything that's needed

49:05

is there. Now we're going to proceed by way of

49:08

maximum detail in developing this program

49:10

in specific areas. That is, we won't

49:12

change anything there; we'll just publish

49:14

detailed road maps on various

49:18

important areas. In particular, I

49:20

promised in one of the previous

49:22

programs a road map for small

49:24

business on removing various barriers.

49:26

I promise that in the near future we'll have a

49:29

program about this, and we'll invite

49:32

specific small business owners here,

49:34

and we'll talk with them about their problems. This is

49:36

one of the important directions, for example,

49:38

of our work: trying

49:40

to flesh out the things that really

49:42

concern people and are important

49:45

for the economy. I also see that you're

49:48

asking a lot of questions

49:50

about various oil and gas issues. I

49:53

have a suggestion for you: let's

49:56

not touch on them today, because

49:58

in a week, on June 8, the well-known

50:02

energy expert promised to come to us,

50:03

Mikhail Krutikhin. Many of you have long

50:05

been asking us to invite him and have long

50:07

been waiting. So I've specifically gathered all these

50:09

oil and gas topics together, and we'll

50:12

discuss all of that there. But

50:14

there is one thing I'd like to comment on

50:16

separately, and that is yesterday's decision by the

50:20

Stockholm arbitration court.

50:22

Regarding that lawsuit — I don't even remember anymore who sued

50:26

whom, Gazprom or Naftogaz of Ukraine —

50:29

a great many people were waiting for this decision, and

50:32

the amount of Gazprom's claims against Naftogaz

50:35

was astronomical — nearly $35 billion,

50:37

and Gazprom lost. That means

50:39

Naftogaz doesn't have to pay it anything.

50:41

Many people are asking me to comment specifically on

50:43

this situation. I want to say that

50:45

it does not in itself carry any immediate

50:48

consequences, and Gazprom simply wanted

50:52

to use this lawsuit to crush

50:54

Naftogaz of Ukraine, relying on

50:57

a contract that was drawn up in 2009,

50:59

back when, if you remember, there was

51:01

a three-month gas cutoff, and Prime Minister

51:04

Tymoshenko signed all this very quickly,

51:06

on the fly, in a rush, just to

51:07

immediately

51:08

untangle that situation, and after that, let

51:11

the chips fall where they may. And by the way, for that

51:13

she basically served time in prison.

51:16

So the essence of it is that in this

51:18

contract there is a so-called take-or-

51:20

pay clause.

51:21

I'll explain it simply for those who aren't fully

51:23

familiar with the subject: basically, a certain

51:26

minimum threshold

51:27

for gas supply volumes is set, and if the consumer —

51:31

in this case, Ukraine — takes

51:33

less, saying, well, we don't need

51:35

all that, we don't need, say, 50

51:37

billion a year, we only need, say, 20, then

51:40

it is still considered that it must

51:42

pay for 50. I know many of you

51:45

are having your hair stand on end right now — how

51:49

can that be? But there really is such a

51:51

formula in international

51:54

long-term gas supply contracts. The explanation

51:57

is that the producer has to

51:59

invest, accordingly, in

52:02

fields and pipeline construction,

52:04

and to guarantee those investments, it needs

52:06

income guarantees. Therefore, you will pay

52:08

for a certain volume regardless of

52:11

whether you consumed it or not. That's why

52:13

it's called take-or-pay — although if anything,

52:16

"pay anyway" would probably be a more accurate

52:18

way to put it. And so

52:20

Gazprom calculated that Naftogaz had consumed

52:23

far less than the threshold that had been

52:25

set in the contract, and Gazprom

52:27

said: we don't care that

52:29

you didn't need Russian gas;

52:30

you committed to paying for such-and-such a volume,

52:33

so pay in full. And the Stockholm

52:36

arbitration court made a rather revolutionary

52:38

decision that this clause, in

52:41

principle, violates fair competition,

52:43

is imposed on the buyer. I think

52:46

this will have major long-term

52:48

consequences for Gazprom — not immediate ones,

52:51

not today; that is, right now no one is going to pay it

52:53

anything, yes, but

52:55

European gas consumers will, of course,

52:57

try as quickly as possible to use this decision

52:59

in all of Gazprom's other

53:02

European contracts — that's

53:04

Beria's formula: one way or another, they paid.

53:06

It's all spelled out: they'll take this ruling and

53:09

run to court to have it changed everywhere as well

53:11

changed.

53:12

In the end, I think that after a whole series of

53:15

possible court cases, and in some places

53:17

voluntary concessions by Gazprom, apparently

53:20

it will have to give way even further on those

53:23

gas sale prices in Europe, which have already

53:25

fallen very sharply for it.

53:27

In their

53:29

report, which was published literally yesterday

53:32

under international financial reporting standards

53:34

for the first quarter,

53:35

you can see that even though sales volumes

53:39

to Europe are growing, revenue is falling; the average

53:41

price is only about $190 per 1,000

53:44

cubic meters, and I think this

53:47

situation with Naftogaz, and Gazprom's loss in

53:51

the Stockholm arbitration case,

53:52

that defeat is important not so much from the point

53:54

of view of any current payments there,

53:57

there won't really be any of that, but from the standpoint

53:59

of a broad revision of contract terms

54:02

with other European consumers, this

54:05

will of course be very important. They

54:07

will of course take this case and

54:10

definitely

54:12

go to court with it and try

54:15

to push Gazprom back even further, weaken

54:17

its position, and squeeze money out of it. This has already

54:20

happened in previous years. So I

54:22

think Gazprom needs to prepare

54:23

now for major

54:24

losses in the European market. And here's another

54:28

question that

54:30

you often ask—many people

54:33

write about it, and yes, this really is

54:36

an important question: don't you think that

54:38

it is necessary

54:39

to shift the tax burden onto

54:42

individuals—that is, to make

54:43

Russians themselves become

54:45

taxpayers? You know, in our country

54:47

most people today have no dealings with

54:50

the tax inspectorate; taxes are paid by

54:52

employers, and

54:54

basically people don't even file tax returns

54:57

because it's not mandatory if you

54:58

work in one place—your employer pays

55:00

on your behalf. And the argument is

55:03

that Russians need to be made into

55:05

taxpayers so that they themselves

55:07

would take that payment to the tax office and

55:10

understand how much they personally give

55:11

to the state, so that they would develop

55:13

the motivation to demand things from that state.

55:15

Uh, a lot is written about this, and you

55:18

know, my friends, I want to put it this way:

55:19

this is indeed strategically

55:21

the right thing to do; it should be done, and

55:23

at some point it will have to be done. I can only

55:26

say that, most likely, in my

55:29

view—well, it would also be interesting

55:31

to know Alexei Navalny's opinion—write

55:33

to him personally with this question. This is not

55:36

a top-priority reform that needs

55:38

to be carried out, because first of all it is very

55:39

complicated—that is, we would immediately see a drop in

55:42

revenues, because collecting from, say, I don't

55:45

know, 70 million working people is much

55:47

more difficult than collecting from a smaller number of

55:50

companies and employers. And second,

55:53

people will of course grumble. I mean,

55:55

just imagine: you come to power, and you

55:57

have the opportunity to carry out

55:58

some reforms. You will need to quickly

56:00

do several things that will actually

56:02

improve the situation quite noticeably, right? But

56:06

getting involved in things like this, with

56:08

a long-term effect, but which

56:10

will negatively affect a large number of people—

56:12

well, most likely there may simply not be a mandate for that.

56:14

So I want to say that I

56:17

very much agree with this way of framing

56:18

the issue: people should

56:21

ultimately be taxpayers in our country. But I

56:25

think this is not among the top-priority

56:28

reforms—to shift the tax burden

56:30

specifically onto individuals—because the consequences

56:33

will only become apparent later, while dissatisfaction

56:35

will be great. We may see a drop in revenues,

56:37

and we need to understand that if we

56:41

have the opportunity to carry out real

56:44

reforms in Russia, it will be

56:46

a historic, very rare chance

56:48

of the kind that, in our country's history,

56:51

has not come along often. We will need

56:54

to manage to do the most important things in a very

56:56

short period of time in order to

56:58

truly, first, restart

56:59

economic growth, and second, put money into the hands of

57:02

the population—that's what we keep

57:04

talking about all the time. So unfortunately, this is one

57:07

of those reforms that, apparently, in my

57:09

view, will have to be

57:10

postponed until later. But there is also

57:14

another point people ask us about, and this

57:17

incidentally relates to the debate with Kudrin at the

57:19

St. Petersburg Economic Forum. This is

57:22

the question of lending rates: when

57:24

will entrepreneurs finally get

57:27

normal, acceptable loan rates?

57:29

Please give this a like.

57:33

I want to discuss this separately in one of the next programs.

57:35

I think that in June we should generally talk

57:37

about the Central Bank's policy and our

57:39

banking system. Most importantly, there

57:42

is exactly the same situation there with fat

57:45

cats as in the rest of the economy. Slide twenty.

57:48

Now look at the slide—you will now

57:51

see the record profit

57:53

our banks are reporting: 1 trillion rubles.

57:56

And at the same time, the volume of lending to the economy

57:59

is falling and falling, while profits are at record levels.

58:02

And if you look at the next

58:03

chart, you can see that this year

58:06

bank profits are growing even faster.

58:09

What does this stem from? It stems from

58:11

the fact that in our banking system

58:13

it is dominated by the 6 or 7 largest state-owned banks

58:16

which control more than half of

58:18

all assets, two-thirds of the corporate

58:21

loan portfolio, and the loan

58:22

portfolio for individuals. And, as you can see,

58:25

right now they are lowering deposit rates, giving you

58:27

less money, while on loans they are not

58:29

in any hurry, uh, to lower rates. On average, right now

58:31

they are, roughly speaking, around 12 percent on

58:34

loans, 14 percent for small

58:35

businesses.

58:37

Show the last slide again.

58:39

Demonopolizing the economy, including

58:41

the banking sector—this is the solution

58:43

that is needed. This is the solution we

58:46

advocate, and this is the solution that

58:48

you will not hear from the fat cats at

58:50

the St. Petersburg Forum (the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum), not from Kudrin

58:53

or Titov, and certainly not from the government.

58:54

So once again, be sure to watch

58:57

our program. Here we tell

58:59

the truth about all this. Here we will tell you about

59:02

the only sensible alternative—how to

59:04

truly ensure normal

59:06

balanced development for our country,

59:08

restart growth, and create opportunities

59:10

for our entire population, for all our

59:13

citizens, so that their incomes

59:15

increase, instead of, as in this new

59:18

so-called strategy,

59:20

economic development plan—horror, darkness, pensions will not

59:22

ever return to their pre-crisis level.

59:24

I will insist that Navalny's

59:26

colleagues simply distribute this article to everyone in

59:29

the regions. And you should definitely

59:31

support Alexei Navalny's campaign.

59:33

Be sure to watch our

59:35

program every Thursday at 4:00 p.m. Moscow time.

59:37

This was the program "Where's the Money?"

59:40

I am its host, Vladimir Milov, and

59:43

see you in a week. Thank you.

59:46

[music]

Original