I just don’t have the energy anymore to answer the question: “Listen, so what was that all about with your sudden release?”
I have even less energy to comment on the hellish nonsense being churned out by “political analysts,” who have already banged out a thousand articles with a million different theories. In the New Russia, of course, there will be no political analysts at all—we’ll feed them to wild animals for the amusement of children visiting the zoo.
Let me just tell everyone at once how I see it from the outside.
But first, three important things you all need to understand when trying to analyze any actions taken by the authorities:
It’s a mess and chaos in there. Ninety percent of major political decisions are made as a result of accidents, coincidences, spontaneous choices, and the pressure of the moment. And I’m not even talking specifically about the authorities in the Russian Federation—I mean any government. Read politicians’ memoirs; all of this is described there perfectly well.
The people sitting in the Kremlin are not superior to you either intellectually or in terms of how informed they are.
If every morning you carefully read two decent newspapers and follow the news on two to five more or less independent TV or radio stations and websites, and you also have a Twitter feed with a few journalists in it, then your level of awareness is no worse than Putin’s.
That is, Putin of course knows who will be fired and when, whose fur-coat storage room is bigger, and what really happened with Serdyukov—but as for the overall situation, you can predict it no worse than he can. Where does Putin get his information? From the same sources you do. Plus “closed-door sociology” of terrible quality. Plus FSB analytical briefs of even worse quality. Plus analysis from various “political analysts,” which is even worse than what those same analysts publish openly, because the “political analysts” understand that if they put that kind of garbage in a public memo, everyone would laugh at them. A classified one, though—no one will ever see. I’m simplifying, of course, but broadly speaking that’s exactly how it is.
Now let’s move on to the situation itself:
I knew for sure there would be actual prison time.
and Yulia said as much after the verdict; a few days earlier, I was told that Putin had signed off on the decision and the “hardline scenario”; two days before, I even got a call from Kirov saying that three cells in the pretrial detention center were being renovated and that they were preparing to station a special Federal Penitentiary Service unit there. It’s a small city—you can’t hide that kind of thing.
Of course, “knew for sure” in a situation like this is a relative thing. One thing today, another tomorrow. Some say, “They’ll definitely lock you up,” while others whisper in your ear, “Definitely a suspended sentence.” If you think about it too much, it does serious damage to your nervous system. So I tried, as much as possible, to recognize that the situation was serious without obsessing over it, and to focus on work instead.
You know how traders say, “The price reflects everything.” The price of a stock at any given moment contains everything: from earnings forecasts and the weather forecast to the possibility of the company’s CEO dropping dead of a stroke. The weight of the factors changes—and the price changes. But at every moment, the price reflects everything the market knows about the universe.
So on the morning of July 18, Putin’s decision to give me five years in a penal colony and Ofitserov four reflected everything: the Moscow elections, the potato harvest, Sobyanin’s legitimacy, the illegitimacy of the government of North Sahara, calls from Barack Obama, the threat of a boycott, Putin’s ideas about his own toughness, and the forecast for mass protests.
And that was that.
And then the conversations went something like this:
*- Vladim Vladimirovich. Yes, Veronika Richardovna. Skumbrievich (Volodin/Malkin/Zalkind) is here with a report. Send him in*.
...
*- Greetings, Vladim Vladimirovich. I was asked to monitor the situation, and I’d like to report. Hello, Skumbrievich. So what’s going on? Well, we think things have gone a bit off script—there could be some problems. We suggest stepping aside for the time being. Kolokoltsev reported that everything is under control. Well, he can crack some skulls, sure, but that’ll only make things worse. Remember December 5. Our turnout forecast has suddenly jumped from 2,000 to 10,000–15,000. That would make it the biggest unauthorized protest so far. Demographically, 80% are men under 35. They might set something on fire. Could they really set something on fire? Bortnikov reports that there is no coordinating center. Intercepts and informants confirm that the event is spontaneous. We have a list of leaders to isolate, but half of them are in Kirov, and the ones in Moscow don’t decide anything. They could set something on fire. The Duma, for example. Yesss... We don’t need a burned-out Duma. Plus, looking at the emotional temperature—provocations have already started. I printed some out for you:*
*They’re posting this right on websites now. No shame at all. That needs to be stopped. Real provocateurs. Gaponism (a reference to Father Gapon, associated with provocation and manipulation). They need to be put under watch. - They’ve been under watch for a long time. But it’s a mass phenomenon. These images are getting a huge number of views. Here’s another one:*
*Our creative fucking intelligentsia is amusing itself. They think it’s all a joke. All the office hamsters will pour into the streets. They’re rats, not hamsters. We spend too much time dealing with them. We’ve spoiled them. - Agreed, Vladimir Vladimirovich. And look at this too—see how they’re playing on sympathy. It’s classic provocation:*
*- Did this just come out? - Yes, right after the verdict was announced. Fifteen minutes later. So they were preparing, I see. - Kolokoltsev thinks that under a “soft dispersal” scenario, we’d have to detain up to 1,000 people. And you know what 1,000 detainees means—5,000 relatives tomorrow. Besides, there’s nowhere to hold them for long. We can spread a thousand people across local police stations, but after that it’s military bases only. Won’t they just disperse on their own overnight? - Most of them will, but the mood is aggressive. They torch a couple of cars, adrenaline kicks in, and then we’ve got problems. Torch, torch. You sound like a parrot. Keep it up and you’ll jinx it. - The Foreign Ministry people are strongly against it. They say a “Magnitsky” (a reference to Magnitsky-style sanctions) in Europe is guaranteed to pass. And if there’s unrest in the streets today, it’ll sail through even faster. Yakunin is already a nervous wreck. By the way, that jab you made at him over the fur-coat storage room was excellent. All right, what do you want from me right now? - If we’re going to walk it back, the decision has to be made immediately. Later we won’t be able to get the message through. Fine, you’ve convinced me. We’ll step out of the way of the hissing goose, and then later we’ll quietly whack him on the back of the head with a log—and into the soup he goes. - As usual, Vladim Vladimirovich. The scheme works. The hamster thinks he’s smart, but he still runs on the wheel. Then call Chaika, and I’ll warn him now. - Right away, Vladim Vladimirovich, I’m off. .... - Listening, Vladimir Vladimirovich. Yuri Yakovlevich, Skumbrievich will be calling you now. Let’s adjust the little scheme for our loudmouth. We’ll play the long game. - Understood, Vladimir Vladimirovich. We’ll take care of everything*.
Obviously, all this is a pathetic imitation of Sorokin’s “Queue.” And please don’t go looking for Skumbrievich in the Presidential Administration directory. But I’m sure it was more or less like this.
What’s more, this has happened many times. Manezhnaya Square:
They stepped out of the way of the hissing goose:
IMAGE FAILED TO LOAD [http://cdn4.img22.rian.ru/images/41147/76/411477605.jpg]
http://ria.ru/society/20101221/311652648.html
And then, once things had calmed down and been forgotten, “a log to the back of the head”:
http://lenta.ru/news/2011/10/28/manezhka/
Bolotnaya:
They stepped aside: Bolotnaya’s Message: Dmitry Medvedev Announces Political Reform.
A log to the back of the head:
And every time, it’s the same. From Pikalyovo to Kondopoga.
So nothing new or especially original happened to me.
Moral:
Let’s look around more often from now on. In any confusing situation, set the Duma on fire.