Don’t be alarmed: the price won’t have to be paid right now, but in the future—and not even in some very distant future. Many of us will live to see it.
Today’s news that Russia has finally decided to supply China with S-400 systems reminded me of an intriguing article in a pro-government Chinese newspaper, whose translation I came across a couple of weeks ago.
Below is a Russian translation of the text about the “sixth war.” It is fairly accurate, but mechanical, so anyone interested can consult the English translation or the Chinese original.
The English version analyzes the headline separately: "The Chinese-language title of the article includes the word bi (必), which means “must” or “necessarily” or “surely.” That is why the word “sure” [appears] in the English-language title of the article" (that is, the headline uses a character meaning “must” or “surely”), and it notes that the article is “an excellent portrait of modern Chinese imperialism.”
Obviously, a newspaper publication—even in one close to the authorities—and a country’s official position are completely different things. After all, all kinds of nonsense get written every day in the pro-government *Komsomolskaya Pravda* (a mass-circulation Russian tabloid), just to attract readers and traffic.
What is interesting, though, is that this is exactly how they attract readers and traffic. In Russia too, articles about the need to seize former Soviet republics used to be completely fringe, and such intentions were categorically rejected by the country’s leadership.
And then the domestic political situation changed, and before long, arguments about who did or did not have statehood—complete with analyses of some ancient maps from the time of Tsar Gorokh (a Russian expression meaning the distant, almost mythical past)—became a favorite topic of officials, the entire media, and assorted experts.
What I mean is that friendship with China matters to us, and every effort should be made in that direction. But we should not indulge in illusions, and we certainly should not view cooperation with China as an alternative to friendship with Europe—or, even worse, seek friendship with China against someone else.
If there is anything to learn from the Chinese, it is pragmatism: they have played their hand well and, taking advantage of Russia’s current historically anti-Western stance, secured gas at a price that is unprofitable for us, are pushing loans on us so we can buy their own goods, and now they have bought the S-400 as well.
At the same time, at the Brisbane summit they did nothing to support Russia’s position and smilingly looked away while Putin was being publicly humiliated well beyond the bounds of diplomatic etiquette.
And finally, a map familiar to many, very popular among Chinese nationalists (who outnumber the entire population of the Russian Federation by roughly five to one).
It is important to understand that if anything happens, the cry of “The Russian Far East is ours!” will be very loud, and justifications for that supposed historical rightness will be found very quickly.
P.S. And as usual—vote and encourage your friends to do the same.
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