Obama’s position on Russia seems fairly reasonable:
Key points:
The seizure of Crimea was not some kind of “grand strategy,” but a reaction to the unforeseen and unexpected revolution in Ukraine.
There is nothing great about this: the times when a nation’s greatness was measured by its ability to seize territory are long gone. Today, a state’s greatness is defined by its ability to invent, produce, and sell its products—to exert influence through the power of its economy. (It’s hard to disagree with that. You can talk about “Iskanders” (Russian short-range ballistic missiles) a hundred times over, but the fact remains that a supposed superpower cannot even keep suburban trains in the Pskov region from being canceled.)
The West is focused on supporting Ukraine’s economy and hopes for successful reforms there, while also keeping the costs of this kind of foreign policy high for Russia. However, the outlook remains pessimistic.
Putin has indeed strengthened his personal position by mobilizing public opinion through war and war propaganda. It is the easiest way for him to boost his approval ratings and divert attention from domestic problems.
That’s exactly right.
As long as Russian citizens are willing to bear these costs, accepting a lower quality of life for the sake of fantasies about growing national greatness, the effect of external pressure will remain limited.
Put simply, Putin’s hope is that residents of the Pskov region will trudge on foot along the railway tracks and blame the cancellation of the suburban trains not on the thieves in the Kremlin and Russian Railways, but on the damned American military machine.