First, a roundup of the main statements:
a) Kadyrov said that Russia’s opposition is “not interested in a prosperous and strong country”:
b) State Duma deputy Adam Delimkhanov:
c) State Duma deputy Shamsail Saraliyev:
d) Chechen parliament speaker Magomed Daudov:
e) Daudov’s most aggressive (a direct threat) and, of course, most ridiculous Instagram statement. Owing to the limits of his intellect, the author failed to realize that with all his dog metaphors he had effectively described both Kadyrov and himself as attack dogs on a leash. Yes, yes, there’s a lot in there about sharp fangs — but they’re still leashed dogs.
f) The astonishing flash mob “Kadyrov Is Russia’s Pride.”
It’s astonishing because journalist Danila Galperovich reminds us of the flash mob creator’s biography:
So the guy literally worked for every terrorist out there, and now he’s blasting all-caps posts online: KADYROV IS RUSSIA’S PRIDE WE LOVE DEAR VLADIMIR VLADIMIROVICH VERY MUCH MAY GOD GRANT HIM HEALTH WE ARE READY TO STAND AS ONE FRONT.
He might as well launch a flash mob saying: DUDAYEV, MASKHADOV, AND KADYROV ARE RUSSIA’S PRIDE.
g) And then, of course, there’s Kadyrov’s remarkable article, “The Jackals Will Be Punished.” Kandelaki — or whoever writes Kadyrov’s articles for him (Surkov?) — really outdid themselves:
There are several reasons why all this is happening:
First. The anniversary of Nemtsov’s murder is approaching. There will be a march in his memory, and there will be many articles and discussions. There will be many questions about who ordered and organized this crime. I have stated my position on this publicly many times: all the facts, including the case materials known to us, indicate that Kadyrov ordered this crime, and that it was organized by his inner circle — Delimkhanov and Geremeyev. As you can see above, all of them have now written their little articles.
It is important for Kadyrov to drown discussion of his involvement in Nemtsov’s murder in a general hellscape of noise — something like “a spat between Kadyrov and the opposition,” “both sides trading accusations,” and so on. The Nemtsov case then becomes just one detail among many.
It is also important for Kadyrov to show that “all Chechens are with me,” so he stages these hysterics in order to create a pretext for a rally in his support.
Second, and no less important. Don’t think Kadyrov has no domestic political problems in Chechnya. He has plenty. The main victims of his regime are Chechens themselves, whom he fleeces in one form or another. Vast sums flow into the republic from the federal center, but most ordinary residents scrape by in fairly miserable conditions. They are very poor. Every financial stream — from capital construction projects to salaries — is controlled by people who siphon off a substantial share into the “Kadyrov Fund.”
There was a reason Kadyrov came down so demonstratively on that unfortunate woman who reported the extortion, and forced a man who had posted comments about the Chechen leadership’s outrageous luxury to apologize half-naked. They were telling the plain truth — and saying what almost everyone in Chechnya wants to say. That is why it was so important to stage a public, humiliating punishment of these defenseless people.
So, for Kadyrov — just as for Putin — solving internal problems requires an enemy. He needs a war, he needs mobilization, he needs campaigns and some struggle against someone. That distracts attention and changes the agenda. People in Chechnya will spend less time messaging each other, “Why did Kadyrov take 80% of the budget money for himself?” and more time saying, “Did you see how Ramzan went after those Muscovites on Instagram? Look how brave he is!”
Third. Paradoxical as it may sound, Kadyrov and his people are very interested in the growth of anti-Chechen sentiment across the country. It creates instability, revives memories of war, and once again makes his role seem unique. Everyone runs around social media insulting Chechens, Chechens snap back, and only Kadyrov can keep them under control.
And the fact that people will indeed run around hurling insults is guaranteed. It is no accident that the article insults not just some vague “opposition figures,” but effectively the educated class of Russia’s major cities. RBC, Ekho (Echo of Moscow), TV Rain (Dozhd) — millions of people rely on these outlets as their main media sources. They are obviously not going to like being talked about this way by an “academic” with only three years of schooling.
At this point, it’s no longer about liberals versus non-liberals, or opposition supporters versus Putin loyalists. The article about “jackals” is simply something no Russian is going to like. Leaving aside the usual bought-and-paid-for hacks, like the columnists at Izvestia. Just as no Russian can possibly like the fact that some basmachi (a derogatory term for Muslim insurgents from the Russian Civil War era) are driving around Russia intimidating people.
With oil prices falling, the money is running out, and sooner or later the federal center will raise the issue of cutting subsidies. What kind of Chechnya definitely won’t lose them? Exactly: a Chechnya surrounded by conflict. Even if it is hated, the main thing is that there are problems that need managing.
And finally, I will repeat what I have said many times: Kadyrov’s strategic goal is to break away from Russia and create his own authoritarian state under the cover of Islamic slogans. He is simply waiting for the moment when there is no money left in the budget at all.
That moment will come, and we will see an Instagram post like this:
RUSSIAN JACKALS ARE INSULTING THE PROPHET, WE WILL NOT LIVE WITH THEM IN THE SAME COUNTRY. As my dear BROTHER Wakha Duranduduyev told me, he was at the satanic radio station Ekho and saw them tear up the QURAN and insult the PROPHET. And the devils from RBC stood around laughing. Today the elders decided that we, the Chechens, must have our own state without these godless people.
As part of a long-term strategy of secession, anything that contributes to ideological separation and confrontation between Chechnya and the rest of Russia suits Kadyrov just fine.
That is my assessment of what is happening.
Kadyrov’s aggressive Islamist regime, built on illegal armed formations and effectively furnished with a Kremlin-issued license to kill — as we saw in the Nemtsov case — is one of the main threats to our country’s national security.
Tags
People