The report published today by the UK authorities on the conclusion of the investigation into the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko is highly sensational (I would not be at all surprised if all this fuss over Kadyrov was stirred up precisely to distract attention from it), but in Russia it will spark a crucial linguistic dispute with fundamental importance for assessing the seriousness of the accusations.
The full report can be read here. It is 328 pages in English, but it is all fairly clear.
Let us set aside for the moment the shocking news about allegations of pedophilia involving Putin. The inquiry did not make that claim; it stated that Litvinenko had been gathering information on the subject:
Now to the main point. Here are the conclusions:
My rough translation:
When Mr. Lugovoi poisoned Mr. Litvinenko, he probably did so under FSB orders. I would add that I regard this as a strong probability. I have found that Mr. Kovtun also played a part in the poisoning. From this I conclude that he too acted on FSB instructions, perhaps not directly but through Mr. Lugovoi, though probably with knowledge of that fact. The FSB operation to kill Mr. Litvinenko was probably approved by Mr. Patrushev and also by President Putin
And this is where the word probably becomes a real trap. All Russian journalists are translating it as "likely" or "probably." I did too at first.
But it is not really just "probably."
It means something more like "almost certainly," "with little doubt," or even "effectively."
The word chosen is the one that expresses the least amount of doubt. That suggests that the inquiry's accusations against Putin personally (as well as Patrushev, and indeed the Russian state as a whole) are extremely serious.
Despite the fact that Russia and Britain are already on very bad terms, one should expect relations to deteriorate further. Their home secretary has already said that all intelligence officers working at the embassy should be expelled (with the emphasis on "all").
Obviously, we will have to expel all of theirs in response as well. And then off it goes.
I would not rule out new sanctions and counter-sanctions either.
As for my own view of the report's findings, I cannot say about Putin, of course, but I have no doubt that this was an intelligence operation.
Litvinenko was working for MI6; that has now been officially acknowledged. Presumably, according to their own notions and codes, they decided he was some especially egregious traitor who had to be killed.
The operation itself deserves separate discussion. It was an absolute failure and shows the extent of the degradation of Russia's intelligence services. Not only did they resort to something as stupid as a murder straight out of a Cold War movie, they also sent that idiot Lugovoi, who smeared polonium across half of London. Traces on the plane, traces in the hotel, traces in the café.
This was not blowing up Chechens in Qatar (though that too was a failure), but the murder of a turned MI6 agent on the territory of his own country. And a high-profile one at that: he gave many interviews, was connected to Berezovsky, and so on. It was obvious there would be a serious investigation. A colossal failure, one that will make it into the textbooks.