Take a look at the latest party ratings, published today by the Levada Center; once again, they make it fairly clear what strategy is needed to achieve a real opposition in the State Duma, something that has been absent there for 13 years.
The Progress Party ranks fifth among all parties and is ahead of every party not represented in the Duma. Its gap with A Just Russia is minimal.
Yes, of course, it’s 1%, and everyone has 1% or less than 1%. Of course there’s a margin of error. Of course the difference is visible only under a microscope.
At the same time, it is just as clear that respondents across the country name the Progress Party more often than any other “non-Duma” party. They name it despite the fact that the Progress Party existed for only seven months before it was illegally dissolved by the Justice Ministry.
The party has never taken part in an election, and it has never been mentioned on television. More than that, people are effectively forbidden from talking about it, just as they are about its leader, except in the context of “he’s a spy for every intelligence service.”
The Progress Party not only has no funding—it is literally impossible to raise or spend money on it, since it has been dissolved. Compare that with A Just Russia, which received almost 1 billion rubles from the state budget over the past year and is ahead of the Progress Party by 1%.
Or with YABLOKO (with all due respect to it), which received 247 million rubles in 2016.
There is not the slightest doubt that if the Progress Party were allowed to run in the elections, then by forming its list through real, honest primaries, it would be guaranteed to make it into the Duma and form a parliamentary faction there. Real deputies—people who are afraid of nothing and work in the interests of voters.
The obvious conclusion is this: the question of getting the opposition into the Duma is not about the “unification of democrats.” It will never happen—stop talking about it now, in 2016. It is impossible in principle: for every “united democrats,” the Kremlin will instantly create yet another supposedly liberal-democratic party, with Kudrin, Barshchevsky, Mikhail Fedotov, Ella Pamfilova, and so on in various combinations.
The question of whether there is an opposition in the Duma is a question of access to the elections. That is why what we need to fight for is not the unification of those who are allowed, but access to the elections for those who are capable of getting in.
Right now, that party is the Progress Party. Maybe tomorrow another independent party will emerge, one capable of consolidating the electorate of the major cities. In that case, I am sure it too will be barred from the elections.
Our main task is to fight for the right of such a party to take part in elections. Not because everyone must become fans or passionate lifelong devotees of the “Progress Party,” but because otherwise it simply will not work. The core electorate, the most politically sophisticated voters, can look at what is happening in the abstract and vote for YABLOKO or PARNAS. They understand the bigger picture and are capable of setting aside all the secondary issues connected with history and personalities. But only the mass voter can deliver victory in an election, and you should not expect them to engage in professional political-science reasoning along the lines of: yes, these people were not allowed to run, but strategically it is better to vote for these others now and then for those later. They simply will not show up, and that’s that.
Here are figures from the same poll:
“I will definitely vote” is at its lowest level since 1995.
“I am sure I will not vote” is at its highest level since 2007.
Unfortunately, voters do not reason rationally. They simply feel whether there is competition, suspense, or not. If there is no chance even to make a symbolic gesture of defiance toward the authorities, then why go vote? We saw exactly that in the Moscow City Duma elections, which had the lowest turnout in the city’s electoral history. That was because independent candidates were not allowed to run, and the registration of various fake candidates to create the appearance of competition fooled no one.
The struggle for the right to participate in elections is not a simple thing either. It is not especially clear or familiar, and the overwhelming majority of voters have never even heard of some “Progress Party.” Even years of work through the internet and independent media cannot produce what television can in a month—for example, fewer than half of voters even know that I exist, even though I ran for mayor of the capital and am, after all, a famous spy, fifth columnist, and repeat criminal offender.
Nevertheless, within the framework of electoral strategies (I stress: electoral), this is the most important thing right now. Otherwise, in 2021 we will still be sitting around lamenting, “Ah, the democrats failed to unite, and once again we will be left without a faction in the Duma.”