Party congresses have taken place across the country, and the election campaign has begun. Meanwhile, ACF's sociological service has decided to conduct the first poll of this political season measuring party ratings.
We ourselves want to know what numbers this campaign is starting from, and you will probably also be interested in unbiased polling.
So:
It would be hard to say that everyone is hugely excited about the upcoming election, although 56% of citizens know for certain that there will be State Duma elections this fall:
Many opinion polls traditionally show high turnout, and this one is no exception. In 2011, the official turnout was about 60%, while the real figure, excluding ballot stuffing, was probably around 50%.
Here are the party ratings among those who plan to vote:
Almost half of voters have not decided whom they will vote for. In the end, these "undecided" votes will be distributed among the parties, and not necessarily in the same proportions as the votes of those who already confidently declare support for one party or another. The experience of previous years shows that United Russia's numbers tend to decline as the election approaches.
Overall, the results of our poll turned out to be quite close to the results of the latest Levada Center poll, except that they forecast very low turnout.
If you adjust for the difference in turnout, all the interesting findings line up:
- United Russia's rating is declining;
- the LDPR is challenging the Communists for second place;
- A Just Russia is hovering on the edge of clearing the threshold;
- non-parliamentary parties are nowhere near becoming parliamentary parties.
However, our poll was conducted before the party congresses. Now we want to run another one and examine party ratings more thoroughly, taking into account the now clearer picture of who is on the party lists. We also want to find out which of the people leading their parties the public actually knows.
That is why we are recruiting volunteers to help us with this poll. As usual: we provide training and strict adherence to the most advanced polling methodology; you provide conscientious work under the supervision of experienced people.
Join us, help us provide citizens with the polling data they need, and see for yourself that ours are the most honest.