I truly mean this without any sarcasm or gloating: right now I’d like to give a hug to everyone who, over the past few days, actively campaigned for voting for party lists (YABLOKO or PARNAS) and believed that “the democrats could make it back into the Duma.” They’re upset and hurting now.
What I want to say to them is this: don’t worry, don’t be upset. You did not lose in the slightest. This is not your defeat. There was never any chance; the result was pre-programmed. You weren’t even part of a real game—you were simply handed a ready-made scorecard with the numbers already filled in.
These “elections” are a procedure designed to look like elections, but they are not elections. There was no possible alternative outcome here—only the preservation of the status quo, which is exactly what we wrote in our statement on our position toward the elections.
Let me try to explain:
First, watch this clip. It’s only a minute and a half long. A well-known TV host, politicians, and journalists are discussing why the democrats failed to get into the State Duma (the lower house of Russia’s parliament) ...
...in 2003. And the discussion will astonish you. The same faces (except for the late Borya—Boris Nemtsov), the same debate, right down to the question of the presidential election. Listen to Yulia Latynina at 01:12.
Everything was said correctly—and nothing happened.
Here’s a picture. It’s a drawing on the board in my office—a bet made by members of the Progress Party’s political council on the day we adopted our statement on the elections.
Each person wrote down a forecast for the vote shares of YABLOKO, PARNAS, and the Party of Growth. The winners were Leonid Volkov (first line) and Ivan Zhdanov (fourth line); I came in second (last line).
As you can see, everyone came pretty close, and no one gave either YABLOKO or PARNAS even 4 percent.
Are we clairvoyants? No. Let me explain further.
Look: in the newly published New Times discussion of the election results:
When did we have time to discuss it, and when did they have time to print it? Obviously—we discussed it in advance, before the election.
- Guys, come over and let’s discuss why the democrats didn’t make it into the Duma!
- Sure, we’ll come.
And no one even said: but the election hasn’t happened yet. Because saying that would be ridiculous. People would laugh.
Why is that? Are the people at the New Times roundtable telepaths? No.
Here is the answer. Hard, undeniable facts that not everyone wants to see. Election campaign results by year (using YABLOKO as the example below; PARNAS has done even worse):
YABLOKO 2003 — 4.3%
YABLOKO 2007 — 1.5%
YABLOKO 2011 — 3.2%
YABLOKO 2013 — 3% for the party leader in the Moscow mayoral election.
YABLOKO 2014 — under 5% in every region where the party ran for legislative assemblies.
The last time YABLOKO (and PARNAS-SPS) cleared the 5 percent threshold was in 1999. 17 years ago. For the last 13 years (since 2003), it has done nothing but lose.
Let’s finally remember this, write it down, and put it up in giant glowing letters across the sky: the parties YABLOKO and PARNAS will never again get anywhere or clear any threshold.
That is completely out of the question. There has never been an example in world politics of a party losing for 13 years under the same name and the same leadership, and then suddenly—bang—winning.
It’s impossible. After defeats like that, the name has to change, and the leaders have to resign. There is nothing terrible about that, nothing shameful. That is what voters want. That is how parties survive. That is how politics works in democratic countries.
After all, the voters—the finest democratic-minded voters, who make up no less than 25% in major cities—made themselves clear back in 2003: no, this doesn’t work for us. Something here has to change.
In 2007 they said the same thing again, only louder and more clearly. Once again, they were either not heard or people pretended not to hear.
Why did I urge people in 2011 to vote “for any party against United Russia,” rather than for YABLOKO? Because I heard the voters—in 2003 as well (when I myself was a member of YABLOKO), and in 2007.
And you should hear them too, please. There is no force on planet Earth capable of dragging YABLOKO or PARNAS over the threshold into the Duma.
These parties refuse to improve, refuse to work, refuse to evolve, refuse to use new methods.
And here is the most important part: the Kremlin heard the voters’ message very well. That is why it locked YABLOKO and PARNAS into place. And it imposed a rule on us, analogous to the famous line, “the Ford Model T can be any color, as long as it is black”:
- you may vote for any democrats you like, provided they are YABLOKO or PARNAS.
When a party appears that is ready to work differently and genuinely fight for the votes of educated voters, it immediately gets a higher rating—even without taking part in elections—than the tired old monopolists everyone is sick of.
And what does the Kremlin do then? Exactly: it liquidates that party, so that no one capable of clearing the threshold can emerge. So that people are left with no option but to vote in the spirit of “this disgusts me, but fine” (because that is exactly how all of you voted).
That is exactly what happened to the Progress Party. It was liquidated and barred from the election. I was stripped of my electoral rights and barred from the election as well.
And by the way, this applies not only to democratic parties but also to nationalist parties that are not aligned with the Kremlin. They are liquidated, their leaders are pushed out or jailed.
For nationalists, the Kremlin has the LDPR.
This is how it works at the entrance to the polling station:
- Nationalist?
- Yes.
- Then you go to LDPR.
- But...
- On our menu for nationalists, there is only LDPR. Don’t like it—vote for United Russia or stay home.
- Nationalist?
- No, I’m a democrat..
- Then over here, to YABLOKO.
- YABLOKO again? How much longer is this supposed to go on..
- Those are our instructions: if someone is a democrat, send them to YABLOKO. Don’t like it—go home.
The result is in this picture:
These are the official figures, while the real ones are described very well by Shpilkin in his epic posts, which you have probably read. If you remove the ballot stuffing from Chechnya and Bashkortostan (a Russian republic also known as Bashkiria), nationwide turnout comes to 36%, and the voting results look like this:
As you can see, even here YABLOKO and PARNAS do not reach 3%.
People are not stupid, so there is no need to tell everyone: you didn’t get up off the couch. They didn’t get up because even from that couch it was obvious there was nothing worth getting up for.
Unfortunately, this hit the results of single-member district candidates quite hard, but nothing can be done about that—everyone sees State Duma elections as a contest between parties, while the candidates are a secondary matter. They are hostages of the defects of the party system.
I won’t even write much about the total incapacity of the parties allowed onto the ballot. Can you recall any activity by YABLOKO or PARNAS in 2013 or 2014? They spend four years in a lethargic sleep, and then a month before the election they reappear to say: vote for us, we’re the best of what’s available.
Then they lose. They say: the voters are bad, and society chose the “Yarovaya package”, and after that they fall back into their lethargic sleep. You can see it happening right now. Ordinary voters are posting about election fraud, at least spreading information, while the leaders and headquarters of the legal democratic opposition remain silent.
Even when you hand them a perfect opportunity, it’s useless. Four days before the election, we released a video about Medvedev, the leader of United Russia. Before the election, it was watched by three times as many people as voted for YABLOKO nationwide. So make some kind of statement. Demand Medvedev’s resignation. Put out a follow-up video. You’ll reach a couple hundred thousand people—that’s a lot for you.
Nothing at all. No reaction. Not the slightest desire to fight for voters’ support. There’s also a good column on this subject.
None of these people or structures are fit for rehabilitation, resuscitation, or even galvanization.
As they say in your favorite TV series, Game of Thrones: what is dead may never die—and it certainly does not win elections.
So the conclusion is simple: any strategy for opposition victory in elections can only be based on full—not selective—access for parties and candidates.
Posts saying my vote matters should be written not before election day, but immediately after the approved candidates are announced. Because your vote was devalued the moment they predetermined where it had to be directed so that it would not matter.
We need to stop demanding only a fair voting procedure and start demanding fair elections.
That is the most important thing right now. We can be upset or celebrate when we lose or win in actual elections. For now, we simply draw conclusions for the future. I hope 16 years is enough experience for everyone.