I presented the results of our first nationwide pre-election poll on my program yesterday. I also gave detailed commentary there (watch here); for now, here are the results in written form with a brief comment.
First: everyone knows about the election. There is nothing surprising about that, but by the rules we have to ask.
Now it gets more interesting.
Second: the interviewer read the respondent a list of names and asked them to identify the politicians planning to take part in the election. 39% recognized Grudinin as a possible candidate. It is both very funny and very telling that Zyuganov and Mironov, who are not running, received higher percentages than Titov, who is.
Third: we wanted to find out whether citizens even know that the Communist Party (KPRF) is not nominating Zyuganov, but another candidate. We asked this as an open-ended question, without offering answer choices. 33% said Grudinin, 15% said Zyuganov. So, as you can see, a considerable share of voters has no idea that the Communist Party has changed its candidate. Half could not name anyone at all. All of this, of course, says a lot about the real level of interest in the upcoming election.
Fourth: if the election were held next Sunday, this is what the result would look like. Naturally, this question was asked only of those who intend to vote.
Fifth—and most important—if the undecided voters are allocated proportionally, we get a forecast for the result of the “election” on March 18, 2018. It would look like this.
The only thing that arouses even a little curiosity is who will take second place: Zhirinovsky or Grudinin. For now, their ratings are the same.
Personally, I would bet on Zhirinovsky: in his usual style, he will start acting outrageously in the last two weeks, and bored voters will turn their attention to him.
Everything else is total decay. It is simply Putin’s ceremonial reappointment, with extras filling out the scene. There can be no second round in principle (despite what various fools often write). It is 100% out of the question.
Your going to these “elections” will simply amount to your personal admission that he was not reappointed, but defeated you in a competitive process. Yes, you personally.
So if you want to help him, go to the “election” and sign your name there.
Taking part in the voters’ strike, an active boycott with campaigning against the “election,” and election monitoring—that is real political struggle. It is no coincidence that our campaign offices have been getting smashed up over the past few days. In Samara, for example, the police broke down a door yesterday to seize leaflets about the strike:
The next pre-election poll: Yekaterinburg. We want to look at the situation in major cities. At first we planned to call and survey Muscovites, but then remembered how difficult that is. Good-natured people from the Urals are more willing to pick up the phone, while voting much the same way as Muscovites do.
The results will be ready next Thursday.
We will continue to provide you with high-quality, honest polling. For determining our political tactics, it is crucial not to grope around in the dark, but to have a clear picture of the public mood.
Thank you to all the volunteers who responded and helped us conduct this poll. Come help us with the next one—read here to find out how.