So, Putin has spoken, and, just as I predicted, he announced concessions and some easing of the pension reform.
All of you, dear friends, will be robbed just a little less. Women, for example, will be robbed not of an average of 1.5 million rubles each, but of about 1 million rubles. A few benefits will also be preserved. So everyone is supposed to rejoice and wave their little flashlights!
Of course, Kremlin political analysts and “experts” are already clucking from under every log: how brilliantly Putin outplayed everyone! how cleverly he calculated it all, how masterfully he pulled off this elaborate multi-step maneuver!
They are pretending that this was the plan all along.
In a few simple charts, I’ll explain why that is not the case. It’s all very clear. We conducted this poll back in July, and based on it we planned our political work, which is why we announced a nationwide day of protest against the pension reform for September 9. You’ll now see for yourselves why there was simply no other option.
First: this is how Russians really feel about the pension reform, no matter how much they are told about “active aging”:
Almost the notorious 84 percent. Only not in favor, but against.
Second, people are not just abstractly against it — this is a genuinely important issue. They are actively discussing it with people they know. The level of engagement is enormous. In other words, this is not some contrived pretext for discontent, but a truly pressing political issue.
And this is not just kitchen-table talk.
Honestly, I can’t remember this level of support for rallies and willingness to take part in them on any other issue. No matter how much propaganda keeps repeating, “You mustn’t jump around in the squares — do you want it to end up like Ukraine?”, people are still ready to take to the streets. Why? Because they can plainly see and know that no other methods of protest work anymore, and no other instruments of feedback exist. They’re not going to turn out for elections between Sobyanin, Sobyanin, and Sobyanin, where they’re basically asked to click “like” if Moscow has been transformed, or a heart if Moscow has become even nicer.
One could stop right here. These figures are enough for anyone who is truly an opposition politician to see organizing rallies as simply their duty. That is what a politician’s job is. Citizens are dissatisfied. Citizens want to voice their opinion. A politician is obliged to help them, organize everything, and give citizens the opportunity to express their position. That is exactly what we are doing. And the fact that I get locked up for 30 days for doing my job does not make it any less right. Quite the opposite.
That is precisely why they lock people up: because in the Kremlin they see more or less the same numbers. We all know that the Kremlin practically LIVES by polling — they are constantly measuring and surveying things, and they base their decisions on it. So they saw that an overwhelming majority of Russians are against this pension robbery, and that half are so strongly opposed they are ready to take to the streets — and now they have to try to contain it somehow, and fast. That is why Putin is making an urgent televised address to the nation. Understand this: after the Winter Cherry tragedy (the 2018 Kemerovo shopping mall fire), he did not make such an address. Because he was not afraid (and he does not care about people). But this time — he was afraid.
And here are a few more important charts. Of course, some people will still be swayed by propaganda in the spirit of “the tsar is good, the boyars are bad” (a Russian saying blaming officials while absolving the ruler); some will think that the “fifth column” was plotting something sinister and that good Putin will fix everything. But are there many such people? We look, and we see that there are not:
It is true that after the pension reform was announced, 47 percent began to view the government more negatively, while “only” 33 percent began to view Putin more negatively, but:
— first, 33 percent is a lot — second, that is exactly why Putin had kept silent on this issue until now — third, this old trick of “sacrificing the ratings of your associates, turning them into scapegoats while preserving your own rating” simply no longer works.
Medvedev’s rating is already below rock bottom; there is nowhere left for it to fall. So Putin’s rating is far from fine as well. No, of course, there is no point getting carried away — the numbers are still high, but nowhere near what they used to be.
That is why Putin is panicking and trying to sugarcoat the pill.
That is why all of us must come out on September 9, invite everyone we know, and throw all our energy into making these rallies as strong as possible. People want this.
Join us. In Moscow, it is Pushkin Square at 2:00 p.m. Links for the other cities are here: