I’m going to explain what we’ll do next and what our political strategy is.
Everyone keeps asking: Alexei, explain the plan.
Our plan has many parts, and today I’m going to talk about the part that concerns electoral struggle—that is, elections.
Here it is: Smart Voting: https://2019.vote/
Let me stress this: the strategy I’m announcing today concerns elections specifically. There are rallies, there are protests, there are investigations, and so on and so forth—but there are also elections. They differ, and we treat them differently. Some can only be boycotted, as was the case with the last presidential election. In others, participation is almost pointless because of the scale of the fraud. But in some, victory is entirely possible. This applies first and foremost to elections in major cities.
For example, they will take place next autumn in Moscow. For example, they will take place next autumn in St. Petersburg. One way or another, huge numbers of people will take part in them.
There will be different plans, different lists, and different ideas. The arguments will be endless.
We are proposing our own electoral strategy, and I’m asking everyone to read my post carefully and watch the video.
Think it all through. If you support us, say so. Register. If you disagree, then write and explain why. Tell us what plan you think would be better.
We put ours together after long reflection, extensive sociological research, and discussions with opinion leaders we trust.
We are convinced that this strategy is the best thing that can be done right now when it comes to elections. None of this will be easy. We understand how the Kremlin will start pushing back against it. We understand its weak points, but this is the best option available.
So.
We believe that the main and realistic goal in elections is to break United Russia’s monopoly.
It would be great—really great—to have our own party. A real, decent one. The Russia of the Future party. It would hold primaries and nominate excellent candidates. Not cowards, and not puppets.
And it will nominate them, but we all understand perfectly well that the Kremlin is afraid of our party and will not register it. And it will try to remove our candidates from the ballot.
So “legal politics” (that is, the sphere where elections exist) will remain a closed zone open only to “systemic players”—that is, parties and candidates who are more or less under control. We need to break this situation, but we also need to understand what to do if it doesn’t break.
United Russia is losing popularity, and the increase in the retirement age dealt a serious blow to this party of crooks and thieves, yet its candidates still win districts 99% of the time. Why?
It’s simple math. United Russia is guaranteed at least 30–35% of the vote thanks to administrative pressure, television propaganda, and the mobilization of state employees. The other 65–70% vote against United Russia, but for candidates from different parties. The standard lineup is this: second place goes to the Communist Party, third or fourth to A Just Russia and the LDPR, and Yabloko and the others get a few crumbs.
So the majority is against United Russia, and yet they win again.
They would never win if the Communist Party, A Just Russia, and the LDPR divided up the districts among themselves. They wouldn’t win if Yabloko and the Communist Party divided up the districts in the central neighborhoods of major cities.
But that is the Presidential Administration’s main task: to make sure the parties never come to an agreement. To make sure Communist Party candidates denounce “sellout liberals,” while Yabloko supporters condemn “stupid Stalinists.”
If everything works this way, then a United Russia candidate can win with just 35%.
We saw what happens when this scheme breaks down quite recently in elections in four regions, where Putin-backed candidates unexpectedly lost.
What happened was a spontaneous consolidation of voters. In the first round, people voted for their preferred candidates. In the second round, everyone set aside ideological preferences and voted for “the strongest one.”
We took an active part in that. Do you think we wanted to campaign hard for an LDPR candidate in Khabarovsk? Do you think we were thrilled to support a Communist in Primorye or Khakassia?
No. But we saw the bigger picture: United Russia’s monopoly has to be dismantled. That’s why we recorded videos in support of LDPR and Communist Party candidates, paid to promote them, and I campaigned for them on my own program.
It worked, and the benefits of defeating United Russia candidates are infinitely greater than the downsides of having some guy who’s for Zhirinovsky or Stalin become governor.
Will this keep working on its own in every election?
No.
Gubernatorial elections have a runoff, but all the others do not.
The Kremlin will make sure that the systemic parties become even less capable of reaching agreements.
And it may seem that you and I can do nothing about it.
But in fact, we can. Two words: consolidated voting. Or, as we’ve called our project, Smart Voting.
We first experimented with this during the “Barvikha experiment”, when Pamfilova had only just taken over the Central Election Commission, and we discovered that the authorities were terrified of it.
And now the conditions are even better:
- voter turnout is falling. Of course it is—people aren’t interested.
- the ratings of United Russia and Putin have dropped significantly.
And you and I can—this is the whole point of the project—agree on whom to vote for. Choose “the strongest one” and push that person through in order to defeat the United Russia candidate.
In a situation where systemic parties and politicians will NEVER reach an agreement among themselves, we can make that agreement ourselves.
In other words, the opposition—in the form of the voters themselves—will a) unite, b) come to an agreement, and c) divide up the districts.
And here you immediately reply:
- Alexei, you’ve lost it. Forty percent of voters can’t possibly coordinate. Don’t overestimate your own capabilities. You can’t do this without television. You might persuade a few percent. Maybe 10. Maybe 25 in the biggest cities. No more. That won’t be enough.
And I’m telling you: we’ve done the math. And you can look at the calculations. We do not need to persuade 40%. With turnout this low, the people who are online are enough. The only thing that matters is that they vote not ideologically, not for “their own party,” but strategically. All together, collectively, for one candidate against United Russia.
In fact, for a typical election in a major city—specifically, in Moscow and St. Petersburg in the upcoming elections—we need the following level of participation in Smart Voting:
- 3% of the total voter roll made up of people who previously didn’t bother with elections at all and never voted.
plus
- one-third of those who were already voting and voting against United Russia.
Important: that 33% is not of the total voter roll, but of those who were already voting for the opposition. This time, they simply need to vote in unison for one name.
And then we can genuinely deprive United Russia of its majority. And we’ll have votes to spare. In fact, this is still a pessimistic model. We can see that the formula 3% new voters + 33% of those already against United Russia will be enough.
Let’s look at specific districts. The biggest upcoming election is the Moscow City Duma, where United Russia holds 38 of 45 seats.
And they won most of those seats EXCLUSIVELY BECAUSE voters’ ballots were split among opposition candidates.
Let’s look at three specific districts where United Russia candidates became deputies, but where, respectively, a Communist, a Yabloko candidate, and an A Just Russia candidate would win if we applied Smart Voting.
I’ve removed the names, and once again I want to urge you not to focus on them. All the candidates may be pretty bad. But our goal is to break United Russia’s monopoly.
Once we break it, we’ll be able to put forward decent candidates too.
Southeast Moscow. The United Russia candidate wins with 40%. And it will be very easy for us to unseat him with turnout at that level (it was 21.04%) if a relatively small number of us stop overthinking how bad the Communists are and simply vote for that candidate as an anti–United Russia instrument.
Southwest Moscow. An A Just Russia candidate wins easily under Smart Voting:
North Moscow. A Yabloko candidate gets through easily here if we all vote for them.
Our main problem will be that the parties themselves will categorically refuse to take part in this. They’ll be forbidden, and they’ll be afraid.
So there will be hysterical cries of: Whaaat?! Vote for Stalinists?!
After that, Yabloko will once again end up with 0 seats, even though it could win 5 or 6. All it would take is accepting that the Communists will get 15, and that they should be given 15 districts instead of running a pointless candidate in all 45.
The parties cannot and will not come to an agreement. But we will. At least we’ll try.
Anyone who wants to dig into the numbers from these examples and see for themselves that the math is on our side can go here.
The obvious question is: how will you determine “the strongest” candidate—that is, the candidate in second place?
In fact, it’s easier than it seems. First of all, we’ll analyze the results of previous elections. Then polling data. And let’s be honest: most of the time it’s already clear which candidate is stronger—who is actually working and who isn’t, who has name recognition and media resources.
Of course there will always be arguments about this. But we will conduct an honest and objective analysis and explain our choice in a way that the majority can agree with.
Primaries are possible, but there is one problem with them: the authorities will simply refuse to register the primary winner for the election. Still, it is a possible mechanism. In a normal system, it is the best one.
How does this work in practice?
You think it all over and decide to take part. To unite with everyone else for Smart Voting. If you’re not sure, then ask me questions, clarify whatever you need. Over the next few months, I’ll be doing nothing but explaining and clarifying.
You register on the website and provide your building address (no apartment number needed) so that we know which electoral district you belong to.
Using the results of previous elections, polling data, and so on, we determine “candidate number two”—that is, the non–United Russia candidate with the best chance of winning. We send you instructions on whom to vote for, along with an explanation of why we made that choice.
Let me say right away: at the moment, we can only go all the way down to the most local level—district municipal deputies—in St. Petersburg. For now, our project covers the federal level, regional legislative assemblies, and city councils in major cities. But we’re working on expanding that.
Together, you and I campaign to get everyone to join.
In the final month before the election, you and I campaign with all our might so that even people less interested in politics than we are will still go to the website, enter their address, and get a voting recommendation.
That’s how we will win. Not immediately, of course. Everything will be difficult and hard.
But I assure you: right now there is no other electoral strategy that is more effective.
The only way is to vote smart. If we haven’t coordinated in advance, then going to the polls makes no sense at all.
Think it over. Register. Be sure to discuss this with your friends and acquaintances. You can criticize it—just make sure you discuss it.
This is our plan and our new major campaign.