I see there’s a big debate about "Smart Voting" and its chances. Will there be enough “smart votes” to crush and wipe out United Russia in Moscow and other regions, or not? How can that be measured? No one really knows. Propaganda, of course, is blaring from every loudspeaker that we won’t succeed. It is trying to plant confusion and doubt in our hearts.
However, we do have an answer—scientifically precise. It is based on data from a fresh Moscow-wide survey by ACF’s sociological service. We finished it two weeks ago, and it was one of the polls we usually conduct “for internal use,” but given all the debate, I thought: why not show everyone the numbers?
Here, take a look.
How Moscow City Hall was suppressing turnout. As you can see, back in June it looked like their effort to depress turnout was working. But the wave of protests turned everything upside down.
Of course, we cannot say with 100% certainty that all 8 percentage points of additional planned turnout caused by the rallies are entirely and exclusively “our people.” But if they really are, that is very bad news for Sobyanin, Sergunina, and the rest of the crooks. If that additional quarter of voters turns out and votes in a coordinated way against the United Russia candidate, that is more than enough to ensure that not a single United Russia member remains in the Moscow City Duma. And what if, in the days that remain, we manage to persuade even more voters to join "Smart Voting"?
And one more important caveat right away. Moscow polling is very difficult if you want to do it properly and conscientiously. Muscovites get too many spam calls, they are often busy and rushing somewhere, and they often hang up. Many of the respondents we do manage to reach do not have Moscow registration—and we need to survey only eligible voters. A conscientious poll requires strict adherence to socio-demographic quotas: for the sample to be accurate, you need to interview a certain number of men aged 30 to 39, and so on. All of this makes a Moscow-only poll much more complicated and time-consuming; if we can conduct a nationwide poll with a sample of 1,000 people in 4–5 days, a high-quality Moscow poll can take two weeks. Usually that is not a problem, but when the political situation is changing so rapidly and sharply, the timing of the poll must be taken into account when interpreting its results. Keep in mind: the figures we are showing here were collected after the first large authorized rally on Sakharov Avenue on July 20 and, mostly, after the July 27 rally, but before the August 10 rally. We believe the major protests on August 3 and 10 must have significantly influenced Muscovites’ views. Most likely, the increase in turnout is no longer 8 percentage points, but higher.
Let’s keep going.
Why are we confident that this increase in turnout is mostly “ours”?
Because we are recording a 6-percentage-point increase in the share of people who know about "Smart Voting". And of course, we can also see just how much untapped ground remains for outreach work—work you can help us with. This slide shows how important each of our efforts is. Invite as many of your friends, acquaintances, and relatives as possible to join “Smart Voting.”
And here is the most important chart.
Why is it so important to push "Smart Voting" and tell as many voters about it as possible?
Because Smart Voting is taking the lead and winning! Before the rallies, it was beating the United Russia candidate by 31 to 20; after the rally, the margin was already 37 to 18—more than two to one! That is why VTsIOM (Russia’s state-run public opinion research center) is running around like mad and, on orders from the presidential administration, polling voters from morning to night on the question of “how does the idea of Smart Voting affect you?”
But here too, it is important to understand: there is still enormous room for work among undecided voters. Their number is falling, but not fast enough.
And finally, one more optimistic story.
This is simply the answer to every question. To the question of why the ruling party, which holds an 85% majority in the State Duma and the Moscow City Duma, suddenly decided not to nominate a single candidate in elections to the country’s largest regional parliament. To the question of why independent candidates were barred and all this hell and circus was staged. To the question of why they fear Smart Voting like the devil fears incense. To the question of why we are bound to win.
The emperor has no clothes. We have 12 days to tell everyone about it—that’s all.
Don’t wait. Sign up right now and bring in everyone you can.