We conducted this survey in mid-August, and the post was supposed to appear on Alexei’s blog sometime in the last third of last month, but whether because of a bout of pancreatitis or because some members of our team were dealing with hyperglycemia, we had a slight metabolic malfunction of our own, and somehow it just wasn’t the right moment.
But when Alexei came to, one of the first questions he asked was, “What’s happening in Khabarovsk?” And the answer — “People have kept coming out every day for the third month now, and every Saturday there is a march of many thousands” — made him very happy. He said, “Let’s publish our survey after all.” So that’s what we’re doing.
When we conducted it, what we wanted above all was to understand what the participants in the Khabarovsk rallies themselves thought about the protest’s prospects and about how it could be helped. Since the protests are continuing and the heroic people of Khabarovsk have no intention of giving up, the survey data have not lost their relevance even a month after it was conducted.
Let’s take a look together:
First, we can immediately see that the entire region is in turmoil, and the entire region knows about the rallies in support of Governor Furgal. The survey was conducted across the whole territory of the region (not just in Khabarovsk), and it still showed an extremely high level of public awareness: only 5% had heard nothing about this protest movement, which is unprecedented for Russia.
Second, people are not just watching the rallies — they are actively taking part in them. As many as 38% of respondents (among those who know about the rallies) either participated themselves or personally know people who did. That is only possible if the rallies drew tens of thousands of participants (and not “700 people,” as the local Interior Ministry falsely claims).
This is also confirmed by the answers to a direct question about participation in the rallies:
Fourteen percent — every seventh resident of the region! — say they have personally taken part in the rallies at least once. At the same time, the majority — two-thirds — of those who have gone to a rally at least once say they have participated repeatedly. That is what makes the Khabarovsk protest so unique. It is not a one-time outburst of anger; people really are coming out to protest day after day.
But even those residents of Khabarovsk who do not go out to the rallies themselves actively sympathize with the protesters and share their demands. Sixty-two percent agree with the protesters — four times more than the 16% who disagree. It is hard to recall a protest movement in our country that so fully expressed the demands of the majority of citizens. This is genuinely broad popular support.
And here is one more illustration of the resilience, strength, and determination of the people of Khabarovsk:
Fines, repression, arrests — none of it frightens them at all. On the contrary, it makes them more resilient and more ready to fight. All you can do is take your hat off to them.
But beyond admiration for their resilience, there is also the question: what comes next? How can the protest in Khabarovsk achieve victory and get its demands met? How can it be helped?
And here is how the residents of Khabarovsk Krai themselves answer that question:
They themselves understand perfectly well: they do not need Sergey Shnurov (a Russian musician and media personality), and they do not need Ksenia Sobchak (a Russian TV personality and politician). They are not seeking to radicalize the protest at all. No: they understand that to win, their rallies must not lose their mass character, and other cities must join them. In my view, this is a very important message from Khabarovsk to all of Russia.
And finally. Kremlin propaganda, of course, constantly says that the Khabarovsk rallies are not political in nature. Supposedly, people are worried about Furgal’s fate, but that does not mean they have any grievances against Putin or the central authorities. That is, of course, not true:
Putin’s approval rating in the region (31%) is significantly lower than his disapproval rating (41%), and things are even worse for Degtyarev, Putin’s appointee — the ground is burning under his feet (10% approval, 43% disapproval). Sergey Furgal, meanwhile, has only grown more popular among the people of Khabarovsk: his approval rating stands at 76%, with a disapproval rating of just 6%. No matter how much television has tried to portray him as a villain and a murderer, none of it has stuck. The people of Khabarovsk understand perfectly well who jailed their governor (Putin) and why (because he dared to become more popular than Putin). And they are drawing very sound political conclusions.