So, out of the $500 billion, the Bank of Russia effectively has only half left at its disposal—$270–280 billion. And that half is now shrinking at an average rate of $75 billion a month ($15 billion a week in direct sales, plus $15 billion a month in the Bank of Russia’s actual sales). How many months will the foreign currency reserves last? At this pace, by February 2009 there will be no reserves left (while their official level may still formally remain at $250–300 billion). What does that mean? It means the ruble exchange rate will collapse in January. Not to 40, but to 60–90 rubles per dollar. from here by the way, I’m also convinced that there will be a devaluation. It’s necessary.
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