The figure of "one trillion rubles" is becoming ever more popular in our country, awash in petrodollars up to its ears.
An Oil Trillion Rosneft has recalculated the cost of developing the Vankor oil field—the project has risen in price from 754 billion rubles to nearly 1 trillion rubles. On the upside, the state-owned company will now be able to demand an extension of tax breaks for developing the field. Investment in the Vankor project through 2037 will amount to 960 billion rubles ($34 billion at the current exchange rate). That is the estimate of the Index expert center, according to Rosneft materials (a copy was obtained by Vedomosti, a Russian business daily). Read in full Lovely. Doesn't it remind you of anything? Transneft's ESPO pipeline (Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean) first cost 300 billion, then 350, then 420, then 491, and then, with "expansion" taken into account (read: finishing what should have been done in the first place), nearly 600 billion. Rosneft's flagship project has gone from 640 billion (at the end of last year) to 1 trillion.
Two obvious questions arise: (substantive) Why are the cost estimates so wildly off? Sure, it's Eastern Siberia—swamps, reindeer, gnats, yetis—but colossal sums were spent not just on engineering surveys, but also on pre-design and design documentation. Give us the names of those dreadful designers who were off by 40%. Tell us how much they were paid. Show us how they won the design tender. Take them to court. (rhetorical) How much of this trillion do you think will be siphoned off and sent along the route Cyprus -> British Virgin Islands -> Switzerland? I'm sure it will be quite a lot. After all, no matter how many times I and other Rosneft shareholders have asked for a fuller breakdown of the phenomenally huge expense line in the company's profit-and-loss statement, "Socio-Economic and Investment Development," no one has ever produced any sensible documents. And especially delightful is this miraculous cycle: costs rise for no clear reason -> East Siberian oil becomes more expensive -> tax breaks are needed. In other words, money is being taken out of two pockets: shareholders' and taxpayers'. I am, of course, not against developing East Siberian fields; if tax breaks are needed, then fine, let's grant them. But at the same time, let's launch a project called "Honest Vankor," whose essence is very simple: publish all contracts that make up the project's costs; publish all tender documentation; if a contractor company is incorporated through offshore entities, require it to disclose its ultimate beneficial owner (make that a condition for being admitted to the project). Then we will immediately see who is really getting the wealth of Eastern Siberia.