I’ve been told that people are leaving comments under every post saying, “So why won’t Navalny speak out about Crimea? Is he scared? Trying to sit on two chairs at once!” Sure, I’d like to sit on two chairs if I could (who wouldn’t?), but I’m also ready to lay out my position in detail. That is a politician’s main responsibility: to have a position on important issues. If you remember, my campaign was built around meeting with voters and answering any questions. Right now, of course, at any meeting with voters, the question of Ukraine and Crimea would be one of the first to come up. Since I’m under house arrest, and the Kremlin crooks, through their tame judges, have banned me from using the internet, I’m answering in a new format for myself: I make up the questions and answer them myself on paper. And the “collective Navalny” will post this to LiveJournal. Your comments will also be printed out for me on paper later. - What is your view of what happened in Ukraine? What happened there, exactly?
What happened in Ukraine was a popular uprising against a corrupt and thieving government. The core of that uprising was Kyiv and the country’s western regions, but most of the southeast supported it too—silently, at least. Otherwise Yanukovych would not now be holding strange press conferences in Rostov-on-Don. There is a political statement by the party I lead on this subject. The people have the right to rise up when other political means of struggle have been exhausted. I won’t belabor the point. Two examples of what “Yanukovych’s rule” meant: a) Yanukovych’s son, formerly a dentist, rapidly turned into a dollar billionaire. What could better illustrate monstrous corruption? b) Prime Minister Azarov, whose actions were one of the main triggers of the Maidan protests, spent a long time lecturing everyone about the terrible West, foreign influence, and “Gayrope” (a derogatory slur for Europe), and then after resigning quickly ran off to live in Austria, where his family has an estate and bank accounts. What could better illustrate monstrous hypocrisy? Whether you’re from Donetsk or from Lviv, any normal person understands that a government like that has to be changed. The thief Yanukovych decided that those unhappy with him should be clubbed over the head. Then he decided they should be shot. That’s how he ended up in Rostov. I’d be very curious to know what he’s thinking now. Because if, after the first violent dispersal and beating of students, he hadn’t started acting like a thug, but had instead addressed the nation and fired a couple of cops, he would still be president now. He might well have lost re-election later, yes. But he could have lived comfortably, remaining one of the most influential politicians and the leader of the most influential party. That’s a lesson for everyone who builds power on the principle of “I want everything.” -*** Why is Putin going so berserk over what’s happening in Ukraine?*** Two words: the golden loaf.
Photos of people touring Yanukovych’s residence (and Putin has 20 of them, let me remind you), taking pictures of the zoo and the golden loaves and golden toilets, wound our chief crook to the core. Because Yanukovych would cry like a little girl if he saw just how much more Putin and his friends have stolen. Their loaves are studded with diamonds. The thought that ordinary people might one day walk through Novo-Ogaryovo, Zavidovo, Shuyskaya Chupa, or the palace in Gelendzhik, photographing his—Putin’s—horses and golden loaves, while documents about his finances are fished out of rivers, sends him into a rage. Let’s be honest with ourselves: we all understand that Putin intends to be Russia’s president for life, with the rights and lifestyle of a tsar-emperor. An uprising against a similar thief-emperor in a neighboring country is a threat, a challenge, and a terrible example. That is why Putin is personally taking revenge on the entire Ukrainian people and on Ukraine as a country. This is not mad revenge; he sees it as entirely rational—to go to any lengths in order to show that revolutions like this end badly. As in, “the country will fall apart.” So he is making the country fall apart. In the process he is inflicting colossal strategic damage on Russia, but that doesn’t interest him—we don’t live a hundred years, after all. -*** Is war with Ukraine possible, and what is your view of sending troops into Ukrainian territory?***
(Commander-in-Chief) You can call me a Slavic chauvinist, but I believe that Russia’s most important strategic advantage in this turbulent world is not oil, not gas, and not nuclear bombs, but friendly—and yes, brotherly—relations between Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians. I once spent 7 days in a special detention center, and among the people in my cell were a Belarusian who had come for work, an Azerbaijani, and an Uzbek. They were all good guys, and we all happily ate potatoes and sprats together, but with a Belarusian or a Ukrainian, each of us instantly feels a sense of unity and shared cultural codes. I don’t know how to put it more precisely. No one forms ethnic cliques or turns against other nationalities; it’s just immediately clear: they’re like me. I understand that this is not a very politically correct thought, but I wanted to formulate it. We are constantly being sold some nonsense about Eurasianism, and how we’re supposed to bring everyone here from Central Asia. But go talk to any Uzbek under 40. To him, Russians, Americans, and New Zealanders are all the same. None of them know Russian. We’ve read different books, watched different films, we have different proverbs, different values, different reference points. I’m not saying there is some contradiction here, or that the people of Central Asia are our enemies, but still, with Ukraine and Belarus we are like brothers in different apartments, not just neighbors. Of course there are nuances, different regions, and so on. But the alliance Putin is now constructing—call it “Russia and Central Asia against Ukraine”—is absurd to me. It’s a kind of perversion. When you come to Kyiv, do you feel like you’re in a foreign city? No. Neither do I. That’s the whole point. Let me remind you once again: look at the map. Ukraine is huge, and its population is huge. 48 million people. One of the largest nations in Europe and one-third of Russia’s population. The largest country in Europe after Russia. Friendly and brotherly relations with this country and its people are the most important geopolitical advantage of Russia and of all the peoples living in Russia. And right now, before our eyes, Putin is destroying that advantage out of fear for his golden loaf (see above). This is a crime. To conclude my answer to this question, I can only quote once again the image circulating all over the internet: if Russians and Ukrainians are told to shoot at each other, they should stand back to back on the border and shoot at those giving such orders. -*** And what do you have to say about violations of Russians’ rights in Ukraine and Crimea?*** Ah, now this is the important part. In many ways, this is exactly why I sat down to write this post. Because it was precisely for my position that the rights of Russians should be defended wherever they are a minority that Kremlin propagandists like Solovyov, who are now shrieking about the need to send in troops, were until very recently calling me nothing but a “Nazi.” So: all of this “United Russia,” with its Putins, Federation Councils, and the chorus of compliant “cultural figures,” are hypocritical beasts and enemies of the Russian people. Where were they when Russians were being driven out of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan by the hundreds of thousands? Where were they when Russians were being slaughtered in Chechnya? Why are they silent now, when Chechen thugs calling themselves “community representatives” rape people with impunity and receive suspended sentences? The history of recent years contains hundreds of cases of real violations of Russians’ rights, often involving violence. The thieving gang kept silent about all that, and only started singing this song now, when Putin’s golden loaf faces a hypothetical threat. Let’s speak in numbers, so to speak.
Link to data sources. (Unfortunately, Ukraine’s census was postponed, so there is no fully up-to-date data, but these figures are still telling.) Look at this table: it contains data on the number of Russians according to the 1989 census and as of the date of the last credible study. Look at it and tell me: in which region were Russians’ rights violated more? In Crimea? Or perhaps in Chechnya, where half of everything that exists is named after a man who called for “killing as many Russians as possible”, and where all the killers who fought against our soldiers were given the title “Hero of Russia”? Being under house arrest, I’ve naturally ended up watching more zombie TV. But this is just monstrously false. Straight-up Goebbels-style propaganda. I believe all these bastards lying about “160,000 refugees from Ukraine” (where are they? They should be visible from a satellite—that’s a whole city), about “militants attacking the Voronezh region” (where are they? The police must have caught them by now—show us), and so on, should be put on trial. Sorry for the pathos, but these are genuine “war inciters.” We even have a criminal statute for that. It would be foolish to deny that there are huge numbers of people in Crimea who want to join Russia and/or expand their autonomy, but claims that troops need to be sent into Crimea “to protect Russians” are nonsense and hypocrisy coming from people who, for years, have consistently betrayed and sold out Russians wholesale and retail everywhere—from Turkmenistan, where they betrayed Russian interests for gas contracts, to Chechnya. I have a poll for you; I’m curious about the result: [Error: Invalid poll ID 1960301] - And in your view, is it fair that Crimea belongs to Ukraine? Well, of course not. The fact that Crimea “ended up” with Ukraine by historical accident is wrong, unfair, and offensive to any normal resident of the Russian Federation. Crimea was transferred by the illegal, voluntarist decision of the erratic Khrushchev. Responsibility for that lies with the CPSU and all those ridiculous Politburos, which the communists—who have suddenly become so warlike—would do well to remember. The fact that Russia also has to pay “rent” for the Black Sea Fleet base is especially infuriating. Crimea is wonderful, beautiful. My wife and I spent our first vacation together there. - Does that mean you support actions to incorporate Crimea into Russia? No, I do not support such actions. I can explain why: I believe that international agreements and Russia’s word should count for something. As I see it, the main reason the Russian Federation guaranteed Ukraine’s territorial integrity (including Crimea, unfortunately) was the agreement—the 1994 Budapest Memorandum—under which Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal, then the third largest in the world after Russia and the United States. Was it an equal exchange: recognizing Crimea as Ukrainian in return for the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal and renouncing nuclear-power status? I don’t know. But it was worth something. That agreement was signed by Yeltsin, the man Putin had been working for since 1996. And Putin never used to voice any objections to that agreement. The golden loaves changed everything. Let reason number two be voiced for me by one guy who said this in 2005, when he was still just a corrupt politician and had not yet decided to become an emperor:
http://youtu.be/P86iJEKDKgk Changing state borders in Europe through the use of troops and force is unacceptable. It will lead to nothing good. We condemn the United States and its allies for all that nonsense they pulled in Kosovo, and rightly so. Let’s be consistent. For us ourselves, the issue of territorial integrity is a painful one. It is in Russia’s interest always to tamp this issue down and always to oppose such moves, as China does. 3. The referendum. This is not how referendums are conducted. Not on such a timetable, with this kind of campaigning
and with observers barred as well. And the campaign slogan CRIMEA’S BUDGET WILL DOUBLE, AND SALARIES WILL RISE FOURFOLD IF THE REGION JOINS RUSSIA is quite something too. By that logic, we could annex any country. Let’s promise a fourfold pay rise and the United States will vote to join us as a federal subject. I have little doubt that in a fair referendum, “we want to join Russia” would still win. Fine—then hold a fair referendum, not this piece of garbage. But that is not the most important thing. What matters is that Russia ABSOLUTELY MUST NOT SUPPORT REFERENDUMS OF THIS KIND UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. The economy will weaken, and we won’t be able to keep sending Kadyrov trainloads of money forever. Sooner or later that will happen. No one doubts that he would immediately launch a referendum on independence. There are no Russians left there anymore (see the table above), so the outcome of the referendum is obvious. Would we recognize it? Allow it? A referendum on the independence of Kaliningrad Region—would we allow it? Recognize it? A referendum in Dagestan? In Tuva? Even within our own lifetimes, not just our children’s, we may see some regions in the Far East where there are more Chinese than Russians. Would we let them hold a referendum too? Let me draw your attention to the fact that in Russia, attempting such a referendum can get you prison time. A law was recently passed under which if you write on VKontakte, “I want to organize such a referendum,” a criminal case will be opened against you. So why are we ourselves encouraging such referendums? So that in ten years other countries can cite our own decision and recognize Chechnya’s independence? Inside Russia itself, Putin and “United Russia” have arranged the law so that holding a referendum is impossible. In other words, referendums are banned for Russians in Russia. And for everyone else too. In 15 years there has not been a single federal, regional, or local referendum (except for a couple organized by the authorities themselves on merging regions). But here the Kremlin riffraff has suddenly become so open to the expression of the people’s will. This is a major strategic mistake that will come back to hurt our country badly. Another poll: [Error: Invalid poll ID 1960302] The consequences of Crimea’s “accession” will be extremely disadvantageous for Russia in the medium and long term: accelerated NATO expansion; accelerated deployment of missile defense systems directly on our borders; a reduced role for international organizations, especially the UN Security Council, even though Russia, as a state with a weak economy, is obviously interested in strengthening the UN’s role; further stagnation and a decline in GDP. Clearly there will be no immediate economic catastrophe, but within a year the consequences will be noticeable to everyone. - All right, so you don’t want annexation. Then what should be done? What is the way out? Nothing original: expanded autonomy for Crimea; guarantees for the use of the Russian language for everyone who wants to speak it; guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO; guarantees of the indefinite and free presence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea; amnesty for participants in the somewhat odd authorities currently in Crimea, and guarantees against criminal prosecution. Everyone is satisfied. Everyone saves face. Ukraine preserves its territorial integrity. No one gets the massive headache associated with changing the borders of a European state. - And what will actually happen? I believe Crimea will not become part of the Russian Federation. What we will see is the classic Putin pattern: “two steps forward, one step back.” They’ll puff out their cheeks now and then back off—simply recognizing the referendum and independence. That’s what he always does. They introduce a law imposing a 1 million ruble fine for attending a protest, then “compromise” and make it 200,000. They want to put someone away for seven years, then “compromise” and give innocent people three. That’s how it always works, in everything, if you watch carefully. I do not mean to say that Putin is cowardly or easily frightened. Most smart people whose judgment I’m inclined to trust believe that Putin’s flexibility is actually his strength. He always avoids direct confrontation and conflict. He’s crafty that way. My forecast is that Crimea will, unfortunately, become another “strange territory,” like South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnistria, or Karabakh. Everyone will be handed passports. In elections there will be another million voters casting 99% of their ballots for “United Russia,” with 97% turnout. No observers. We will pour huge amounts of money into Crimea, but it will be pointless, just as investment in South Ossetia has been pointless. Only the “leadership of the unrecognized republic” will get rich. The state of Crimea will be recognized only by Russia and Tuvalu. Everyone will have a lot of problems, but some citizens will make a lot of money off those problems. So there it is. I hope I’ve made my position on Ukraine and Crimea clear. In closing, and again sorry for the pathos, two appeals. To Ukrainians. My dear friends, you can see that this is a provocation. Putin wants you not to build a new state, but to work yourselves into a frenzy over Crimea. Why the hell do you need Crimea right now? Let it determine its own fate. You have a chance to build a real European state and not repeat the mistakes of 2004, when after the “Orange Revolution” the same kind of corrupt people came to power. An honest judicial system. An independent anti-corruption commission modeled on Singapore’s. A real parliamentary republic, where the source of power is a government with support across the whole country. Crush the vile oligarchs who buy up media outlets and politicians. Real public oversight over those in power. Those are your priorities—not Crimea, and not a fight with Russia. This is all a setup aimed at preserving and multiplying the golden loaves on Russian territory. To Russians (and citizens of the Russian Federation generally). Imperialism is evil and stupidity. It harms the interests of the people of Russia. We should be developing and increasing our human capital, so that people are healthy, educated, and live long lives instead of dying before retirement, as they do now. We are dismantling the Academy of Sciences while pouring money into the Olympics and strange military operations. But surely the future lies more with the Academy of Sciences, doesn’t it? The main interest of Russians is not seizing land, but governing the land we already have properly. Look at the map—we already have quite a lot of it. Russia must become a European state where there is one law for everyone, where national wealth serves the people and is distributed fairly. If we build such a state, everyone will want to join us on their own, without war. PS If you agree with any of this, please help spread it around. From house arrest it’s not very easy for me to promote posts, and I’m sick of the propaganda.