I am pleased to report that we have finished processing our first nationwide telephone survey and are happy to share the results with you. As I wrote earlier, we chose the events in Ukraine and Crimea as the topic of the survey. It is very important to get real information about what our fellow citizens think. The zombie box (slang for TV) shows one picture. Twitter shows another. Where the truth lies is unclear. It really does seem that propaganda is working effectively and that the “party of war” is gaining popularity, but on the other hand it is hard to understand why an anti-war demonstration draws ten times more people than pro-Putin ones, despite all the endless resources the Kremlin crooks put into organizing them. Various “cultural figures” sign letters in support of the war, but as Lazareva rightly notes, they do not attend pro-war rallies. Why? They are embarrassed and afraid. Afraid of what? Well, apparently of public opinion. That is why it was so important to measure it. Please note that the results are presented in a trendy and innovative (and somewhat odd) format—as embedded tweets that can be retweeted. This is an experiment connected with the blocking of this page (we will launch a new one soon, don’t forget to sign up). You click “retweet” on the part of the survey that seems interesting to you, and your Twitter followers can learn the results even if they cannot access my blog. So. A telephone survey of Russian citizens aged 18 and older, based on a random sample of landline and mobile phone numbers. March 9–14, 2014. 1,601 respondents. The statistical margin of error does not exceed 3.4%. Under some of the images are my comments and interpretations; they are not scientific and do not claim to be serious analysis. This is simply my personal opinion. According to the survey: 84.5% of respondents consider Ukraine a state friendly toward Russia
One could say that old man Putin’s attempts to portray Ukraine as absolute evil have not been very successful so far. 55.1% of Russians sympathize with neither side in the Ukrainian conflict
10.2% of Russians have a positive view of Yanukovych
The golden loaf and his billionaire son did their job. Putin can keep parading Yanukovych from Rostov-on-Don all he wants. Russians do not like him and never will. 55.6% of respondents believe that the rights of the Russian-speaking population are being violated in Crimea
72.8% of respondents believe that the rights of the Russian-speaking population are being violated in Ukraine
These two questions show that the propaganda about violations of Russians’ rights has achieved its goal. Most of our fellow citizens believe those rights are being violated both in Crimea and, even more so, in Ukraine. This is interesting to compare with a poll on my LiveJournal (not representative) about where Russians’ rights are violated most. Chechnya wins by a wide margin. It would be interesting to conduct such a poll across Russia. 85.7% of Russians would like Crimea to become part of Russia
Crimea is very popular in Russia. As we can see, 85% of people would like to see it as part of the Russian Federation; there is nothing surprising about that. I would too—the only question is the price and the consequences. And next come the questions about that price: 74.4% of respondents consider a war between Russia and Ukraine impossible
This is a very important finding, and it may provide the answer to why more people attend anti-war rallies despite the propaganda. 56.7% of respondents support sending troops into Ukraine
And yet 56% support sending in troops. This is exactly the kind of result that needs professional interpretation. Most likely, people perceive “sending in troops” as a kind of threat or symbolic action that does not imply war. 18.4% of Russians began to view Putin more favorably after the statement about sending in troops
This was a very important question for us. Both Peskov and United Russia have been beside themselves with delight over Putin’s “sky-high ratings” in connection with the actions in Ukraine. As we can see, 18% of respondents began to view Putin more favorably, 5% less favorably, but for the overwhelming majority nothing changed. The only thing going through the roof is in Peskov’s head and at VTsIOM (the state-run Russian polling center). 63.8% of respondents oppose military action between Russia and Ukraine
It is important to understand that if Russians and Ukrainians really start shooting at each other, it will be perceived very negatively. Though there is also that hard-core 10%. 9.8% of respondents oppose active steps by Russia to annex Crimea
Our fellow citizens have difficulty choosing the means of influence, but non-military mechanisms are still closer to what they prefer. 27.7% of respondents believe that the cause of the conflict in Ukraine is a provocation by the United States
Almost 30% believe that what is happening in Ukraine is the result of Western interference. It seems to me that this is not very much, considering that this is not merely the official position but a central point of propaganda, hammered home all day long from every possible angle. The ACF sociological service’s poll was conducted in full accordance with the rules of sociological science. We publish the results exactly as they are. We never tweak them one way or the other. That is why I believe our poll is quite suitable for genuinely assessing the mood in the country. As for how the sociological service is developing: We equipped 3 additional workstations, and now our call center looks like this:
On Wednesday, March 19, we are starting a new poll, and as always we cannot do it without your help. Sign up with us soon, if you haven’t already http://team.fbk.info/#show/sociology Day and evening shifts, tea, fruit, nuts, and the best team are guaranteed.
Acknowledgments Thank you to the wonderful volunteers, without whom none of this would have been possible. Thirty-three people helped us conduct the Ukraine poll: Masha, Nikita, Nikita, Anton, Diana, Vladislav, Roman, Olga, Olga, Andrei, Anna, Nikolai, Nikita, Ksenia, Liza, Olga, Timofei, Anna, Olga, Vladimir, Tamara, Eleonora, Pavel, Natalia, Sergei, Evgeny, Ekaterina, Dmitry, Daniil, Anton, Alexandra, Yuri, and Artyom. You guys are the best! Special thanks to Anna Biryukova, head of the ACF sociological service. Let me remind you once again that because my blog has been blocked, I would be very grateful if you could help spread both this link and reposts on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/navalny) and VKontakte (http://vk.com/navalny). And of course, don’t forget to click the “retweet” button. During Alexei Navalny’s house arrest, his blog is being run by Yulia Navalnaya and ACF staff.