Good evening. It is 8:05 p.m. You are listening to the radio station
Echo of Moscow. I am Yevgenia Albats,
devoted
to the politics of the coming weeks and months. Next
Sunday, September 18,
elections to the State Duma (the lower house of Russia’s parliament) will be held.
And for the first time in recent years, deputies are being elected
not only by party lists, but
half of the seats will also be filled through single-member
districts. Polling suggests that the Duma
will once again be filled by the same parties and the same faces.
Voter interest in the election, again,
if the polls are to be believed,
Alexander Kynev will correct me if I’m
putting it wrong, but for now it is not especially
high. The projected turnout is 30–40%.
However, you can see, for example, even from
Facebook, that more and more people
are asking themselves: should they go vote or not
go at all? And if they do go, whom should they vote for?
For the small parties, even though they clearly
have no chance of getting in? So is it worth giving your
vote to a horse that will finish
last?
Or should one vote only for
the single-member district candidate?
There are, in fact, a great many questions.
That is what we will be discussing today
here in the Echo of Moscow studio. This is what we call
a strategy of electoral behavior. And in
the Echo studio with us is Alexei Navalny, politician,
leader of the Progress Party, founder of the Anti-Corruption
Foundation. Alexei,
good evening.
>> Good evening.
>> Alexei Kynev, political scientist.
>> Alexander,
>> Of course, Alexander Kynev. Sorry,
Sasha,
>> Well, under the circumstances, that’s understandable. Yes. Well,
because Alexei is here, yes, Alexander Kynev,
political scientist, expert at the Committee of Civil
Initiatives. Am I introducing you correctly?
>> Mikhail Fishman, editor-in-chief of the newspaper
The Moscow Times. Mikhail, hello.
>> Good evening.
>> So, first, let us establish this so that I
understand what kind of place we are living in, and, and
what to expect from you. The first question, the basic
one: should people take part in the elections
or not, Alexei Navalny? Take part
in the elections,
>> if there is a decent
single-member district candidate in your district. Personally, I will not go to vote,
because I do not have one.
>> All right, and Alexander Kynev,
>> I think, of course, people should take part. I
have specifically brought statistics, and if I may
say so, I can give examples why
you absolutely should participate.
>> Mikhail Fishman, do you participate?
>> I
don’t know. I’m close to Alexei
Venediktov’s position on not participating in the elections. Well, I
am very close to Navalny’s
position in this sense. And I
am struck by the fact that something about these
elections is clearly wrong. If in my
district, where as an ordinary citizen I can
allow myself to say a few words, which
is known for the fact that in 2011
it voted for Yabloko (a liberal political party). And in general, well,
it is the most liberal of districts—in this district,
not one of the single-member candidates’ names
means anything to me. And if you start
digging, it turns out that voting
for these people is impossible under any
circumstances. So what am I supposed to do?
I will probably go anyway, but I cannot
say that I would confidently urge
everyone to follow my example.
>> So, we will need to answer
the question: if a person goes to vote, and
yet there is no single-member candidate
to vote for, and there is no party
one could reasonably choose, what
option does that person have? Yes, well, let us
address it right away, without going too far afield:
what should one do if a person
believes that as a citizen, as a
taxpayer, he must go to
the polls, because otherwise how can he
demand anything from the state?
But there is no single-member candidate
one can vote for, as you said,
Alexei, and there is no political party
that one could
vote for. What should one do? Well, if, let us say,
you really do not want to vote for anyone at all,
let me remind you that here
in Moscow we only have two
ballots. In many regions,
in St. Petersburg, for example, and in the Moscow
Region, there are at least four ballots,
since people are also electing
regional parliaments there, and there are
quite decent candidates. So,
if you truly have no one at all, and you do not
want someone simply to stuff a ballot
in your place, after all, because you
did not come, then you can simply come
and spoil it—that is, roughly speaking,
put check marks in every box, and
then your ballot will be
invalid. And it cannot
be used for United Russia or for any
other party, because if it is
invalid, that is the end of it. That is,
look, here we only have two
options. But the point is that
a ballot is invalid either if there is not a single
mark on it at all, or if there is more than
one mark. So do not
put a blank ballot into the box; just
put crosses in every box,
and then it will be impossible
to reassign it to any party at all. And
during a recount, when during a recount
seats, whereas this spoiled ballot
again, this spoiled ballot doesn't go anywhere
So, basically, the percentage—the percentage is a bit tricky here.
It is calculated from the total of valid and
invalid ballots, that is, that is, in this way
it will affect the percentages, it will
lower the percentage for the ruling party and for all
the others as well, but it will not
allow someone to cast a vote on your behalf. Uh-huh.
>> I see. It's not as if we have never
resorted to this, to this, to this
tool before. This is for when there is absolutely no one
to vote for, I stress, but it is an option,
and everyone sort of decides that for themselves
for everyone
parliamentary
in 2011, the result seemed quite
successful for the opposition, yes.
And at the same time
many of us voted; your humble servant
voted too.
So, looking back, was that
a successful strategy?
>> Zhenya, that's not quite how you put it.
The strategy was successful. You
voted for that A Just Russia party,
which, as you may remember, came into the State Duma with its entire faction
wearing white ribbons. And
many of them almost then
joined us at Bolotnaya (the 2011–2012 protest rallies in Moscow). That was
the main issue. And they—and the Communists—
did not join. But that was the A Just Russia of that time,
the A Just Russia that existed in that Russia, which had a
different political
system. After 2013, after the whole
Crimea story, after Ukraine, and after
after
now, in effect,
by comparison
It
the so-called systemic parties are basically United Russia,
and in practice there is no difference. That is why I
am not calling for that old strategy of mine
to be used again, because the Kremlin is
absolutely ready for it.
heads
we know,
and they are mostly Communists, in fact
they are not democrats at all. The Kremlin protects
itself by not allowing independent
players into the elections.
rate
elections. Although I am not calling for a boycott,
because, well, I was absolutely unlawfully
deprived of my voting rights. And under
the law, after all, I won at the ECHR (European Court of Human Rights) and in the Grand
Chamber of the ECHR, and in fairness my rights
should have been restored to me.
And I
to the Kremlin.
Of course, I
there has not even been any voting yet, and I already do not
recognize them, because I was not allowed to take part in them
and many other people were not
allowed either. So, well, uh, therefore
right now, voting for anyone against United
Russia is...
What?
At the very least, voting rights should be restored
immediately. But that
did not happen, and still has not happened.
The Supreme Court is simply doing nothing.
And do they reply to you at all, do you know
you send requests? Nothing. Well, that is,
why
and you say
that candidates should withdraw in favor of other
candidates so that they do not compete
against each other
a democratic or liberal candidate,
whatever you call it.
Do you have some kind of objec-
but nevertheless I try not to be
selfish. I understand that a call for
a total boycott would harm
single-member district candidates, would harm
regional campaigns and assemblies across the
country.
to try to separate out several districts,
because what we are seeing now, well,
it is simply a nightmare. In Moscow, not
a single person will be elected in this
way. And this is in a city that
is the main stronghold of democratic
the same old
uh, is headed by—well, he was in the
Central Committee of the Communist
Party of the Soviet
>> Union until 2003. Then no,
also
these
No, of course, in fact, if we
look at the same conventional polling there,
yes, somewhere around 38–40% would support
having new parties in parliament and
new faces. This system
does not let new figures, new
uh
was talking about overly complicated schemes. Yes. And
Alexei was trying to explain a very complicated
scheme. They never work in real life. For
electoral behavior, the schemes that work are
fairly
simple
the system, yes, that is, roughly speaking,
well, not abandoning the elections, yes, but
trying to play on the contradictions within it,
yes, on those forces that are ready for
some kind of change. And it must be said that
here we
got a rally
implemented.
If so, it was extremely important within the system itself
to try, as it were,
to encourage the players, yes, toward a certain
strategy of behavior, then now, under
the conditions of this, well,
regime, the rhetoric now is very
paramilitary or military.
mobilizational, aggressive, extremely
conservative. Agreed? Yesterday we
all thought.
human rights violations, there against
censorship and so on, that they are not
a minority, yes, so it is necessary
to vote there according to taste and preference, there
Yabloko
worse than me, honestly
you can, you bet on a player who
can win. There are cases when you
bet on a player who may
receive some more minoritarian
package. There are cases when you
vote to show that you exist.
Do you mean to say that PARNAS and I had
a chance to get into the State Duma?
>> The thing is that there are three versions
of a conditional victory in these elections.
At most 5%. Yes, that is very good. If
we are lucky, it depends on turnout in the cities.
The second level of victory. You may fail to get
five, but get three.
Two things.
achievements,
like Ksyusha Sobchak, she says: "I am
a blonde." I may not be a blonde, but I
want to understand this clearly for myself. So,
if a political
then
for the presidential election it does not matter anyway, so,
for the presidency there are slightly different criteria
for admission; three percent is not enough there. There
it is already about the State Duma, you have to get into the State Duma. But as for
what concerns parliam.
>> And as for
the election? So,
to nominate your own candidates. This is an attempt
in this way to open a small gate for
thousands of people to be able to go into elections
who today cannot do that
to do so.
>> I see. Thank you. That was Alexander
>> last time, when you
Yabloko.
After that, the election campaign began
and somehow we completely
stopped hearing anything about it
at all. And, well, I carefully
locally
am stunned
>> Yes, no doubt.
>> Right. Uh,
nevertheless, when I watch, uh, uh,
the videos
And
your, excuse me, your attitude has not
changed, uh, toward the Yabloko party, or
did you see something different during this
campaign? It seems to me that if
specifically swept through
for some kind of,
uh, democratic platform, uh, out of
that came out. Well, we can see what
came out. We—I will say honestly, I, uh, I, I this
attempt did see, at least, and
as a giver
may be successful in
Oksaderov.
Listen,
they allowed television, they allowed onto
television, we can see it, which means that what
is called a debate. Well, never mind, at least
none
>> we are at that stage
to play.
That really is so. Well, it is impossible. Well,
indeed, for years, so, uh, um
the athletes were kicking each other in the groin, uh, with their feet,
then they stepped back and said: "That’s it, now we play
fairly, there will be, there will be a fair, there will be
a fair match." Something does not quite
connect
and registered for them. So, here
now on a basis that is not just daily, but
I have the feeling it is hourly, I receive either
an email from Trump,
yes.
An email from Alexei
Well, I think, well, finally, all right, at least
in the last week they wanted my
vote.
In these press-service messages they do not tell me:
"Come and vot
I agree that the field here has been scorched, but
it feels as though the parties themselves
of a democratic bent were unable, did not
want to,
>> it seems to me,
nevertheless
ran the 2011 campaign. Brilliantly
ran it. Brilliantly. I will now, now I will
finish. He ran it brilliantly, uh, he ran
the Moscow mayoral campaign in
our country. Uh, no,
it is necessary
also on which
surely among all these people to whom
these politicians were appealing.
>> Alexei, very—I will be very brief. Mikhail,
if the Party of Progress had not been illegally
liquidated
seconds
but they did not
The news came on. And we went to the news.
>> Complete Albats.
They do not have
not, yes.
Russian politics, to a large extent,
has a woman’s neck. This is, by the way, an interesting
thing. In America they say that women
vote the way their husbands vote. It is
interesting in our case
finish
That’s all. So, no one will get through.
>> Well, at least there will be chances. At least
then, you understand, for voters, for
Mish’s voters will at least be there then.
some kind of
damn
billboards, for example—you see all kinds of them everywhere.
Vinograd, by the way, said that at the bottom
there was quite a lot of PARNAS in the city and
to the region
>> About Tsentralny—are you going to Tsentralny? I
not to Tsentralny, I’m in VGA.
>> Oh, so where Goncharov is,
>> Of course, I mean, that’s where I was born.
>> Goncharov—who even is Goncharov? My
friend Lyonya
28
>> that was how it was. Everyone jumped on board.
There was this feeling
that this was our cause.
>> The intrigue was whether United
Russia would get a majority or not. And what about
the ideas, do you understand?
We need to raise one million dollars in
the next 24 hours. That’s what
Trump’s campaign keeps writing to me—I love those messages.
>> Give $100, $65, $35
dollars.
It was necessary
>> but that’s
>> paid airtime.
>> But I’m not hosting it.
>> Ah, I see.
electoral behavior—about what we should ultimately do
on the eighteenth. Alexander,
Kiv, please tell us after all what
is happening in the regions.
>> Well, the situation is very uneven. That is,
there are regions
of Moscow where
mainly
A Just Russia is active.
in some places it’s the LDPR and United Russia. That’s it, basically,
no other parties, except perhaps
the Party of Growth in St. Petersburg, well, there
are a few other exceptions, did almost nothing.
did almost nothing. DIT
will win.
I can name regions where, in these
elections, where this year
there really was an active campaign—Ikutsk
there really, at a minimum, in two
districts. In general, no, no
in Altai
and there the number of LDPR advertising billboards
is only slightly lower than United Russia’s. There
was a unique region. There the main
force was the LDPR. That happens too.
So. Well, it all depends on the people, on who
who
there
is running against United Russia, basically.
Yes, the Leningrad Region. There are
competitive districts in the Vologda Region
and so on. So there are, there are these
competitive pockets, if you can call them that.
Overall, the average temperature in the ward
is low in terms of competitiveness, but there are
individual hotspots. The forecast is hard to make.
>> So,
in all of Russia’s history. Absolutely. And
it must be said that there is one such point
that is very important.
by the way, about low turnout.
The logic is simple.
then the seat goes to the region where there is
one vote more. Therefore, in the regions,
when governors want to get their lobbyists into the Duma
their own lobbyists, yes, certain useful
people, and so on, formally speaking
in the process, they will try to
raise turnout. But the authorities are suppressing turnout, and they
do everything to make people spit in disgust, yes,
so that they say, "Oh, how fascinating
and boring, there’s no one to vote for, and the others are unknown
and so on." But in fact
what emerged was an interesting
situation: candidates are short on money, naturally,
so campaign expenses are being cut, and so on.
So of course many are running their campaigns
on their own. We haven’t seen this much trash
in election campaigning for a long time, from the standpoint
of just how low-quality the agitation has been.
So naturally the level
of professionalism in organizing campaigns has dropped sharply.
The third point, the third point, is fixed matches.
That is, in conditions where the authorities
tried with all the main players
in advance
and thirdly
there are the same three and a half months
legally, but in practice, since
the elections are in September, campaigning happens in summer,
so accordingly those who intend
to run seriously understand that
they need to start campaigning before
the official start of the campaign, preliminarily,
in spring—in April, May, even February. Only then
does it make sense, because otherwise there is no chance
at all, because who are you going to
campaign to in the summer? And as a result
it turns out that, legally speaking,
the campaign is three months, but because of the shift
in the date it actually lasts half a year. And here
primaries are important as a formal
news hook. It doesn’t matter whether there is
real competition or not—it is a reason to go out
to the people and say something. But there is less money now.
So it turns out that the reduced
amount of money is spread not over three months but
over six. That is why this kind of
situation emerged. In spring, in many regions, there was
an active campaign around notional
primaries—that is, billboards there,
leaflets, newspapers there in March, in April,
and in May. Then June comes, and all of this
gradually disappears; over the summer nothing happens.
And now it’s the end of August and
the beginning of September, and people are simply overwhelmed by
all of this informational, so to speak,
madness, quite often. And since
staged arrangements, since there are plenty of them
hemmed in by things that must not be touched. And
we, we see waves of political campaigning.
That is, people are not talking about what
candidates are not talking about what matters
to people. They talk, they, well,
post recipes, you know, for how to, how to
marinate this or that, you know, how to
fry this or that, I mean
some slogans just to
get a laugh, have a chuckle, take pictures with
cats, dogs. So this is the kind of thing we get
as campaigning, even though we are electing
a federal parliament, and the campaigning is such
that it feels like we are choosing some kind of, I don't know,
best cook or someone else. Right. And
against this backdrop, of this
dullness, tedium, yes, these staged arrangements
the one who wins is the one who becomes a bright
spot. Because those very 40%
of those who want sharp attacks from a candidate,
have not gone anywhere. Accordingly, the one who
has enough courage against this backdrop to
say, "Well, I think that
there are problems no one is talking about, yes,
and then this bright spot
will expose this whole picture, and then
the others will be forced to respond.
>> Thank you. Thank you, Alexei.
September.
>> Yes, first of all, ours was an election campaign,
and an early one at that, so we did not
have time either to raise money or to
prepare campaign headquarters, or for anything else.
Now, if you had
On Monday, well, our Yabloko and
PARNAS will issue a statement, demand
the resignation of the interior minister,
demand an investigation, go out to
the debates, and really hit hard in the debates.
consequences
video.
>> Well, explain why
also because, unfortunately, they do not
know how. Well, the last time they all
cleared the five-percent threshold was long ago.
Funding. Wonderful. You know,
for example, the Yabloko party, the poorest of
them, how much it received in budget money since 2011?
How much, in your
opinion?
>> How would I know?
>> 745 million rubles.
There is no money. No money at all.
the last two.
I do not know where they got it from, but
Yabloko, absolutely and quite definitely, in terms of
the volume of private funds, for example, in
2014, was among the
top four. So, I wish them
all good luck. It's just that I
five later. Sasha, wait.
>> In that sense, it really does not matter what
this party is called. Whether it is called
Yabloko or PARNAS. It could even
be called something else entirely.
and
earlier, because today, well, really
it is already unclear how they differ; I, honestly, cannot
say, even though I am an engaged
observer, I don't know, an analyst,
whatever you want to call it.
there is absolute
whether the LDPR (Liberal Democratic Party of Russia) comes in second place or not
does not matter. What difference does it make? No difference. It is
not important how, inside this vessel,
things shift around; from a political point of view, it is
insignificant. If even a single
one appears, and
breaks open
naturally
we see this in these elections. Unfortunately,
that is a fact. Not a fact. In reality, we
saw even in professional sociology
that at the end of the campaign there was a rise in
the number of undecided voters. And the latest
even
so to speak, well,
yes, he shook up the campaign. He
radicalized Yabloko, because Yabloko
only after that really began
to do something. And decent
Yabloko videos appeared, and Yavlinsky became more
clear and articulate in the debates after that.
There
people need something new. People need
something—this whole grayness, this tedi
in a week? Sorry for interrupting. So
do you think they can manage it in a week? I mean,
the election is in a week
a week
normal
should exist.
>> It does not exist. We can see that it does not.
>> I'm afraid it
>> that even if you receive this mailing,
it will not convince you.
No, well, at least this brings me back to
my own, well, my own point
I would gladly vote for
Yabloko, or for PARNAS, for any party,
if they somehow manage to motivate
someone. I would even
toward victory.
And
do you think United Russia will get a
constitutional majority? I think
not. I think it does not itself
want that, because in that case it becomes
a matter of political responsibility,
which, to put it mildly, will also be very
to carry out almost two
hardly
I think they could get, in the single-member districts,
somewhere around, let's say,
185 seats or so. Yes. Or 180. And
as for the party lists
yes, by
Well, I’m going to vote. I’m going to the
polls. You know, once again, there are a lot of
arguments being made about why and what for
this needs to be done. I have
only one reason. This time, I know for sure
that
my vote, no matter how I use it,
in every instance, every time, to whatever extent
for myself, in every single case. But
right now I am absolutely certain
that my vote will affect nothing. I
cannot change this situation. I
I do not see that op-
this wall today. It’s not, it’s not
possible. What is left for me? I
have no choice in that sense.
Uh, I think let these elections at least be
a kind of reminder to some people,
well, I don’t know, someday, after a long time, uh, you need to
train your hand, you need something, something
you still have to do something so that
something happens, so that something takes place, you still
have to do something. Out of the
conviction that action is better than
inaction, I’ll go anyway.
And also the thought that it would be better if once again, in my
memory, there were an imprint of what
this ballot looks like, for some future day
when ballots become important, and this
memory will be
at least somewhat of an important factor. But
those are probably the only more or less
considerations that will actually lead me
to the polls this, this, this time. It’s hard for me
to tell myself that
no, I’m not going to vote. I have always
gone, though I did skip the elections to the
Moscow City Duma (Moscow’s city parliament), and I didn’t go to those.
Uh, and in fact, along the same
model, those very
federal elections we are talking about today
are developing. But, mm, but in terms of, in
parliamentary elections, I still can’t make myself do it
yet, not yet.
>> Still,
the booth
cast my vo-
how I, how, how I, how I vote. I
know that it won’t affect anything.
>> I want to make a very important point. The thing is,
over the last, say,
10 to 15 years, the democratic parties
have basically destroyed their
regional activist base. In the regions today,
democratic parties effectively do not
exist. There are people with official stamps,
who sometimes go to the Ministry of Justice and hand in
some paperwork. If one or two, I don’t
know how many democratic parties
receive a kind of conditional license, those 3%,
and people will be able to run for office,
then at least some chance will appear
for people to take part in local
elections. Because even when
people come to them—I know many examples when
some local
civic activists, bloggers, fighters for
some cause, right, some political party
just brushes them off. It says: "Well,
we’ll nominate you, sure, now go collect signatures,
but we’re not giving you any money today,
okay?" So that would at least be some kind of
small, very small chance to start
building something locally, because we have
a fundamental problem. We have
nothing but scorched earth, and nobody cares
that it’s scorched. All the struggle is boiling away in
Moscow, on the internet, on social media.
So the leaders there are fighting with
each other. But what about, what about everything around them?
There’s no interest
and there won’t be any,
not right away,
you know, uh, maximalism, yes, it
is of course good, yes, it mobilizes, yes,
it gives energy, maybe, but we need to be
political realists. That’s what I’m for,
to be realistic and to try, yes,
to take at least what exists, yes, to try
to create some footholds and to try
to help specific people on the ground
there, because otherwise absolutely nothing
will ever happen.
>> Alexei, and
September 18 has already happened, and we got what
we got.
So what do we do next? The strategy
for winning elections, both presidential and
parliamentary, has to be tied to
the demand that genuine
players be registered. Until then, elections begin not
at the moment the campaign starts,
but at the moment when real participants are either registered or
not registered.
Therefore, that is exactly what the
strategy is connected with. We need to demand that before
presidential elections, before parliamentary
elections, before any regional elections,
those who are ready to fight for
victory, ready to fight for their
voters, must be allowed to run. The Party of Progress is
one such party. That is what we must fight for.
>> Alexei, I’ve heard you say this several times.
You’ve repeated it.
Right, right. But once again we saw everyone
beating each other up. The democrats once again
failed to unite.
>> We were not the ones who initiated the breakup. We
refused
failure. We’ll see that on the nineteenth
despite all my great sympathy for
that party. This goes back to the discussion of that
general depression with which I, in fact,
with which I actually began.
>> Is that what you mean by general depression?
>> Well, of course, if, if, if
this coalition had been expected to succeed in any, in any
form, then would Alexei really have left?
>> And listen, as for the coalition: I
spent all of 2015 on traveling
around the regions and, for the PARNAS party,
building a coalition in different
regions. We ran in four regions, and in
three of them we were not allowed to participate. Right now,
all the leaders of the democratic parties combined
have not held as many meetings
with voters as I
held in 2015, even without
running for office. But, excuse me, I am ready
to work harder than any campaigner.
It really is a shame,
for those who listened to us, who came. And
next time I will not be here, but in
a week, I hope, we will hear from each other again.
All the best, goodbye.
