THE MOSCOW CITY ELECTION COMMISSION OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED THE RESULTS OF THE MOSCOW MAYORAL ELECTION September 10, 2013 | 12:30 Sergei Sobyanin won with 51.37%. In second place was RPR-PARNAS candidate Alexei Navalny with 27.24%. In third place was Communist Party candidate Ivan Melnikov with 10%. The remaining candidates—Sergei Mitrokhin, Mikhail Degtyarev, and Nikolai Levichev—received around 3% each. Voter turnout was 32%. http://www.echo.msk.ru/news/1154372-echo.html
The crooks at the Moscow City Election Commission have responded in an amusing and entirely predictable way to our statement yesterday demanding a recount at anomalous polling stations and yesterday’s rally: Quick, let’s stamp the paperwork FASTER, faster.
Let’s hang a gold chain around Sobyanin’s neck. And that gold chain will calm us all down and solve every problem.
They understand perfectly well that we have thousands of observers, and that we need to collect all their documents in order to prepare thousands of complaints. We have both logical and mathematical proof that Sobyanin “won” in the first round only through manipulation of at-home voting and ballot stuffing at polling stations where, for one reason or another, there were no observers—above all in New Moscow (the territories added to Moscow in 2012). Only through this were they able to create a margin of 31,000 votes, enough for Sobyanin’s “first-round victory.”
Here is what the stubborn facts look like:
Sobyanin’s average result at polling stations with observers and without observers (according to the official data).
“Sobyanin’s hump.” The relationship between Sobyanin’s result and the percentage of at-home voters. It is clear that if at-home voting stays within the normal, standard 2%, then Sobyanin does not make it past the first round. Where every tenth to fifteenth voter somehow decided to vote from home, the picture is completely different.
All of this logical and mathematical proof will be turned into legal proof by this evening.
No gold chain hung around a crook’s neck will help him. In reality, if Sobyanin refuses to agree to a recount at the “anomalous polling stations,” then instead of gaining the legitimacy he craves, he will become one of the most illegitimate and dubious politicians in the country.
https://twitter.com/romandos/status/377337544759062528
https://twitter.com/WebWizardryProj/status/377332356606345216
Even if we take the “official” “results” of this election, we see that in absolute terms 16% of Muscovites voted for Sobyanin, while 10% voted for us. Frankly, that is not the kind of margin that should make him so hysterical and desperate to snatch that Gold Chain out of our hands.
Especially given the clear, almost clinically mathematical fact:
LOW TURNOUT WORKED IN SOBYANIN’S FAVOR. IF 60% OF MUSCOVITES HAD COME TO THE POLLS, WE WOULD HAVE WON IN THE FIRST ROUND.
Conclusion: it looks quite respectable; there is a visible negative correlation between Sobyanin’s vote share and turnout. The more people came to the polling stations, the worse Sobyanin’s result was.
A fit of the slices (also known as the profile) of the previous chart. Put simply: for each turnout value, a histogram was built showing the distribution of Sobyanin’s vote percentage. This histogram was then fitted with a Gaussian distribution. The mean value obtained from that fit is plotted on the Y-axis. Conclusion: a slope coefficient of -0.8 rather strongly suggests the scale of the effect. http://eugenyboger.livejournal.com/6579.html
Think about that. It is very important to think about it. When I say at every rally, “we simply do not understand our own strength,” that is not just talk. It is a new reality. (and also, forgive me, but I will dare to remind you of this: http://navalny.livejournal.com/855634.html )
Sobyanin and the rest of the crooks have definitely thought about it—that is exactly why they are hastily moving the inauguration up from the 18th to September 12.
https://twitter.com/ivan_f_davydov/status/377371237845966848
The pipe is getting hot, and the toad is shifting nervously from one foot to the other.
Now the most important thing:
Observers, Please send all information about violations recorded at your polling stations here: https://podio.com/webforms/5407172/423968 We are especially interested in information about at-home voting. Please bring the original certified copies of the protocols to the RosVybory headquarters — 9 Armyansky Lane; they will be accepted from 12:00 p.m. to 12:00 a.m. through September 12 inclusive. No lunch break and no days off.